What is happening with Brexit this week and will Theresa May get her deal through parliament?


With simply 11 days to go till Brexit was imagined to happen – and nonetheless will, in accordance with the authorized place – what would be the key occasions this week?

* Will there be a 3rd ‘meaningful vote’ within the Commons on the Brexit deal?

On the weekend, it appeared sure that Theresa May would make one other try to ram by her settlement – however No 10 now says there must be a “realistic prospect” of success.

The possibilities of a vote on Tuesday are fading. There’s then a deadline of 7pm on Tuesday for tabling a movement for it to happen on Wednesday – or there can be no vote till subsequent week, after an EU summit.

* What has modified?

The Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) has but to swing behind the deal, which additionally bolsters the resistance from hardline Tory MPs within the European Research Group.

Until the DUP modifications its thoughts, the federal government could be heading for the catastrophe of one other large defeat, having lost by 149 votes last week?

* Will the DUP – and insurgent Tories – collapse?

Talks between ministers and the Unionist social gathering are ongoing, however it’s sticking to its pink line that Northern Ireland can’t be handled in another way from the remainder of the UK within the exit deal.

After the official legal advice accepted the UK may nonetheless be trapped within the Irish backstop – probably introducing border checks within the Irish Sea – the prime minister has an uphill job.

In the meantime, 23 anti-EU Conservatives have signed a letter insisting they may by no means vote for the deal. An extra seven pro-EU Tories opposed it final week.

* What else can Ms Might do to win the vote?

Properly, there’s at all times throwing arduous money at Northern Eire – which the chancellor has declined to rule out. There’s even discuss of reducing air passenger duty as a carrot.

In the meantime, some Tories have steered they may again the deal if the prime minister agreed to quit immediately afterwards, so a unique chief can embark on the commerce talks. She was mentioned to be “stunned” by the suggestion.

* What occurs if there isn’t a significant vote – or it’s misplaced?

The prime minister says she can be pressured to hunt a “lengthy” extension of Article 50 on the EU summit in Brussels on Thursday, which MPs would then vote on subsequent week.

It’s unclear what “lengthy” means, but it surely could possibly be 9 months or so long as 21 months – permitting the UK to hold out future commerce talks with the EU as a member, fairly than in a ‘transition interval’ exterior the bloc.

* What concerning the European Parliament elections in Might?

Downing Avenue insists the UK must participate, if Article 50 is prolonged past the tip of June. And MPs must vote to reinstate the unpopular elections.

That is nonetheless a strong card to play – so count on a ‘significant vote 3 (or 4)’, simply days earlier than the 29 March deadline if crucial, and a closing arm-twist on MPs.

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