The weather no longer leads the commodity market as often happens. World pandemics continued to dominate the market, and previously most of them were about China. It would be a safe bet to say that the weather will return to center stage for too long, but for now it will quietly not say much about the world trade in grain and oil. It is likely that there will be a short bump in the road of weather that can occur immediately which may slightly increase the market, and that’s when it was realized that US initial planting will be delayed while Safrinha corn in Brazil dries as harvest nears reproduction
Planting at the beginning of the season in the US is certainly not suitable to start what producers and traders want to see. The impact is largely on the US Delta and parts of Texas and, frankly, the region will not say much about the entire year of US production. However, it will be April before fieldwork begins in the heart of the region and even then the conditions may not be ideal.
Despite recent weather patterns, saturated soils and recent flood conditions are expected to turn around later this spring. Farmers need to be aware that the wettest areas in the Delta and southeastern states have a good chance of drying out significantly because April gives way to May. Drought will occur in time for aggressive slow planting, and when the realization is made the market is unlikely to extend any further. That is especially true when considering the northern Midwest will likely have a better start to field research than the southern regions.
The biggest problem for the northern Midwest might be cold temperatures during April. It is possible that mid to late April temperatures will be cooler than usual and it is not surprising that freezing and freezing occur at certain times during this time period. Freezing in April in the northern Midwest is not unusual, but they can scare producers into planting closer to the date of the last normal freeze, and that’s what has to happen this year.
Rainy weather in the United States is perhaps the most anomalous in March. Some improvements will take place in April, but between the periodic attack of cold weather and rain that preceded it there may still not be aggressive field work in some areas. However, this growing season will not be nearly as wet as last year, and the delay will not last long or have an impact on the bottom line. The biggest fear for 2020 is that parts of the lower Midwest, Delta and southeastern states might tend to dry a little too quickly too quickly and that could jeopardize some potential production along with some final planting.
May will be a different month from the northern plains and the Upper Midwest tends to be wetter while the eastern Midwest, Delta and southeastern countries are hotest and begin to dry fast enough to raise some new concerns. This trend will support some aggressive planting in areas that are a little slow with agricultural activity in April. Rain and cold conditions in the northern plains in May will slow down field work and plant development and producers will need to adjust their planting time in late April and early May before the wettest conditions enter.
Meanwhile, Brazil’s ideal weather during the soybean growing season which produces a record harvest will deteriorate enough to emphasize corn and cotton the second season. This Safrinha plant will experience several problems, one of which is already estimated and related to late planting. March 15 is usually the last date for planting in the entire crop area of the second season of Brazil. It is not clear whether most of the crops are planted or not, but World Weather, Inc. believe that most of the plants are seeded.
Informants from Brazil stated that half of Safrinha’s corn plants were planted normally. Another 30% of the plants are planted late and the last 20% planted very late. Nearly 70% of the total Brazilian maize is expected to be produced during the Safrinha season this year, and with 20% of the crops planted very late it is expected to produce bad results. 30% of the corn plantations that are planted late, but not too late, will need the summer monsoon season to last longer than usual. If yes, the yield can be profitable.
World Weather Inc. do not expect seasonal rainfall longer than usual. Typically, seasonal rainfall ends in the first half of April in the second most important season of corn and cotton production. Plants that are late in planting can give good results if the rainy season lasts until April and decreases in early May, but that is not possible – not this year. The rainy season is expected to fall normally and the last few weeks the rain may be erratic and sometimes a bit too light to keep the soil wet enough until the rainy day is over.
In a normal year, maize will be planted in late January and February with only a few plants sown in early March. Seasonal rainfall usually lasts until the first half of April and this will end in completely saturated soil. With monsoon temperatures and limited rain in the second half of April, the soil will not dry up significantly until the second week of May. At that time, most of the corn crop will be reproduced so that it becomes a successful planting season. However, at this time of year, reproduction will still take place in late April and in some areas in May. If the rainy season ends normally, but the rainfall in early April is erratic and does not keep the soil saturated, then after the rainy season ends the region will quickly become too dry during reproduction and yields will decrease.
Plants that were planted too late this year may struggle through development in late March, thrive in less-than-ideal environments during April and reproduce without significant moisture in dry land production areas during May, producing low yields. That’s about 20% of this year’s harvest. 30% of corn planted late, but not too late, can still produce well if the soil is fully saturated at the end of April, but the probability of that happening is low. World Weather, Inc. believe plants will suffer from drought and will produce lower than usual. Since most of the maize production in Brazil this year will be Safrinha, the potential impact of drought is quite high. Close monitoring of rainfall until April is required.
Temperature will have an important role to play too. Warmer temperatures relative to normal, the greater the loss of evaporation humidity, and the faster the soil will dry up after rainfall falls.
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