Allow me to set the scene. Up / down is 7.5. That Dodgers lead Rays, 6-1 with two outs at the base of the ninth game in Game 3. Randy Arozarena step into the box to come face to face Kenley Jansen. The wonderful thing about betting on sports is that no one else in the world will care about the appearance of these plates except for anyone having the action under (Get this out, Kenley, please!) or more (do a home run, Randy!).
Over wins. We took over and the Dodgers won at least 1.5, so we were up 2-0, taking our record to 5-1 in the World Series and 23-16 in the playoffs.
Earlier this postseason I preached on what works and that’s what we’re going to do with the best bets of the day. You will see.
World Series Games 4
Tampa Bay +157
LA Dodgers -172 (-1.5)
All routes via William Hill Sportsbook
Dodgers to win
In this Game 3 installment of the series I am discussing betting on the 1.5 run line because most games are not decided by a single spin and there is no reason to force a bet on an underdog that you do not trust. The Dodgers are the best team in baseball and they keep showing us. Why are we fooling ourselves into thinking the opposite is just because we see giants +157 on the money line for the inferior team? Again, I don’t see “value” in taking on a team that I think will lose. I’ve nailed all three winners so far in this series and it’s precisely because I wasn’t blinded by the odds. Take a better team.
If we want the specifics behind the choices, Julio Urias started for the Dodgers and he was almost untouchable for a moment. So far in the playoffs, he’s hit a 0.56 ERA with 16 strikeouts in 16 innings. In his last three regular season starts, he’s only conceded four times in 17 2/3 innings. Basically, he has been putting opposing offenses on total lockdown since September 6th. The Rays weren’t used to it either. I expect very few Rays to make it through at least six innings here.
Meanwhile, Ryan Yarbrough starts for Rays. He threw 19 throws in Game 1 and this was formed as a bullpen game. I believe the Dodgers offense here is more than just trusting a bunch of coolers to get every guy “on.”
More than 8.0
The only non-bonus option I missed this series was when I bet under in Game 1. I learned my lesson. This is, again, very low over / under considering how well the Dodgers foul is and how capable Sinar is with the important home run. I’m fully aware a Game 3 (6-2) score will be a boost here, but hey, pushing won’t lose. It’s going to be close and I’m less enthusiastic about this pick than the Dodgers winning at least two, but we held on with an over. The Dodgers won, 7-3.
Bonus: Muncy homers on the Dodgers wins
We reached Game 1 with Mookie Betts, but failed in the next two games. It’s funny that before I would never even blink an eye, but now I’m doing this column picks, this is what’s happening right now in the Snyder household.
- Justin Turner do a home run in the first inning.
- * I frown *
- (in my head): Why * &! # $ * I didn’t select Turner to homer? ”
- * Pounds of fists on the table *
- “What’s the matter? Did you choose Sinar?” my wife asked.
Yes, those are the 2020 playoffs for me!
I’ll go with Max Muncy as “increased odds” at William Hill. We could have gotten him at +400 there, but that sticks to a Dodgers win (he’s +200 if you just want Muncy homer). I thought the Dodgers would win, so I went with Muncy to park one. He hasn’t hit a long shot since October 14 at NLCS Game 3 (his grand slam in a historic first inning). Since joining the Dodgers, Muncy has 90 home runs in 372 regular season games and a combined playoff. That’s a home run for every 4.13 games. He’s been seven games without one at the moment. As we want to say in this business, he is due.
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