Food delivery platform
it is now trading almost 90% on it initial public offering price such as a vaccine that is widely distributed in the US and restaurants in some of its largest markets are poised to reopen outdoor dining. So why isn’t this stock too short?
The answer may be more about comfort than taste. Apart from restaurant deliveries, DoorDash has built its market share in third-party shipments for other goods, such as items from 7-Eleven, Wawa, Circle K and CVS. Post-pandemic, those additional opportunities could prove more important to DoorDash’s growth thesis than bearish investors appreciated.
Much of DoorDash’s appeal ahead of its December IPO is how quickly it can go from 0 to 60 in food delivery. The company said it had only a 17% share of the US market in terms of total sales in January 2018 but that share had grown to 50% in October – nearly double that of its next biggest competitor, Uber Eats. Now it turns out that in newer markets such as practical freight forwarding, DoorDash has grown even faster.
A report from Edison Trends Thursday shows DoorDash now owns 58% of US convenience store spending via third-party delivery apps, more than double that of its next biggest competitor, goPuff. Last January, Edison Trends had DoorDash’s share of around 5% and goPuff’s 70%. For all of Uber’s talk of leaning heavily on additional delivery services, Uber Eats’ market share in third-party convenience goods is now just 8%, according to the report.
For DoorDash, the supermarket may be more than just the icing on the cake. According to Edison Trends’ analysis, overall online consumer shopping at convenience stores grew by nearly 350% in 2020, almost three times faster than online restaurant consumer sales. DoorDash customers increased their convenience store spend by 162% sequentially from the third to fourth quarters, according to EdisonTrends data – a good sign for DoorDash’s first earnings report as a public company to come later next month.
Opportunities beyond traditional food delivery appear to be a big part of what differentiates analysts who have remained positive at DoorDash from those who feel they are overvalued. In his initiation report, Truist analyst Youssef Squali pegged the potential addressable markets in groceries and convenience, including e-commerce and bricks and mortars, about $ 50 billion for the industry as a whole, with an additional $ 22 billion coming from specialty food stores and $ 60 billion came from beer, wine and liquor stores. With regards to a highly concentrated wholesale market, he notes that more fragmented areas such as fast delivery could be more profitable. Meanwhile, Angelo Zino from CFRA Research initiated coverage on DoorDash with a sale rating, not to mention the convenience opportunity.
Cautious investors worry that demand for food deliveries will ease as the pandemic eases, but that doesn’t mean demand in other areas will shrink. Analyst forecasts compiled by Visible Alpha show DoorDash’s average order value decreased 23% from 2020 to 2025, but monthly orders per active customer grew by nearly 30% during that period. More options should continue to bring more customers to the DoorDash platform, that is very strong in the suburban market practical shopping is not necessarily walkable Analysts estimate DoorDash’s monthly active customers will grow by 21% this year alone.
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In its DoorDash initiation report,
Doug Anmuth called food delivery a “forever changing category,” noting that while growth may slow, activity will still pick up, given the value of convenience and consumer choice. He cites new verticals, such as convenience, grocery stores and pharmacies, as key growth drivers.
When it comes to restaurant outings, visiting a corner shop is always more of a chore than a gift. It’s possible that even though visitors are racing to return to eat after the pandemic, they will continue to order everyday items.
To DoorDash, that is indeed a comfortable narrative.
Write to Laura Forman on [email protected]
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