(CNN) — health systems in many places the struggle in the winter. Conditions such as asthmaheart attacks and stroke usually worse in colder temperatures, and some infectious diseases such as the flu to spread more easily, which means that hall to face a greater burden of the patient.

This year pandemic coronavirus can create the perfect winter storm, and the scientists say the country must prepare for potential growth in those cases, which could be more severe than the initial outbreak.

In cold weather we spend more time indoors in poorly ventilated spaces — are precisely the conditions which are likely to be the coronavirus is more easily spread. Moreover, the cases of the coronavirus likely to become more difficult to track and trace given Covid-19 symptoms similar to those of the winter respiratory bugs. Governments may also find it harder to take action locks on quarantine-fatigue population.

The Northern hemisphere may have been last winter’s moderate flu season, but there is still the risk of a flu epidemic this year. Plus, pandemic is broken and extended health care in many countries, which leads to a backlog of sick and exhausted workers who are still recovering from the overwhelming number of cases so far.

Academy of medical Sciences in the United Kingdom according to the pattern that he described as a “reasonable worst case scenario”.The number Covid-19-related deaths in the hospital during the period from September 2020 and June 2021 in the UK can be both 119,900, the Academy offered. This forecast is more than twice 45,000 deaths UK still experienced. This number does not include potential deaths in nursing homes, which account for 30% of deaths in England.

“We must do everything we can to stay healthy this winter and priority should be given to those who are most vulnerable,” said Dr. Stephen Holgate, medical research Council clinical Professor at immunopharmacology and Honorary consultant physician University of Southampton and the Department report.

“We have these three months when things get better,” he said. “This is a critical window of opportunity to help us prepare for the worst that winter can throw at us.”

Keep those Windows open if you can

If you are indoors during the winter means there are more opportunities for person-to-person transmission of the virus, the report said. Less daylight means people stay indoors for longer periods and they are more likely to drive or use public transport.

Poor ventilation, combined with more public space, increases the density of viral particles circulating in the air, the report said. Lower humidity, lower temperatures and darker conditions can also mean that the virus lingers longer on the surface, she added.

“In cold, wet or windy weather, people are reluctant to open Windows as they create drafts, and therefore they often have lower ventilation in the winter,” – said in the message.

“This can be a particular problem in modern, airtight buildings that have very low infiltration rate for energy efficiency and for people with low incomes who are trying to keep heating costs down.”

Academy of medical Sciences said that his model indicated that Covid-19 cases, in the autumn and peak in January and February — the busiest time of the year for the National health service of the country.

Figures from the Academy of medical Sciences are based on the assumption that it will not be possible to enter the lock just as effective as one of the UK introduced in March 2020. The model does not account for the use of potential new medicines, or opening of existing drugs such as steroids dexamethasone, which could reduce mortality. That doesn’t account for other possible treatments or the potential of the vaccine.

To get a flu shot

It was especially difficult, says the report, in the project as seasonal flu will be playing this winter. If often varies in severity from year to year.

It may be that social distancing measures to prevent the spread Covid-19 can reduce the spread of influenza. Hong Kong, which was one of the first switched to Covid-19 infection control measures, last winter was much shorter and less severe flu epidemic, a study showed.

However, it is possible to have a cold or the flu, at the same time as Covid-19 — and this can increase the risk of sneezing and coughing, making it easier for Covid-19 to spread, said the report of the Academy of medical Sciences.

Moreover, influenza and other respiratory diseases, which share the same symptoms that Covid-19, likely and group cases of coronavirus harder to track. The expected number of people in England and Wales alone who meet this case definition Covid-19 (cough or fever or loss of smell) will increase from 100,000 a day in summer to 360,000 per day in the winter, the report said.

One thing all experts agree unequivocally that as many people as possible should get the flu vaccine.

“This autumn, before a seasonal circulation of influenza viruses is increased, I urge the American people to be prepared and to embrace vaccination against influenza with confidence for yourself, your family, in the community,” Dr. Robert Redfield, Director of the American Centers for control and prevention of disease, said on 23 June.

“This single law will save lives,” added Redfield.

It is not known

Although we know much more now than we did six months ago about Covid-19, it is not yet known the extent to which intrusion Covid-19 this spring immunity. There is also the possibility that the coronavirus may interact with common cold, influenza or rhinovirus so suddenly this winter.

It is also difficult to detect the trend of what is happening in the southern hemisphere, where in the middle of winter now, the report said. Australia and New Zealand as quickly responded to the threat with Covid-19 and transmission remains at very low levels, the report said. However, some countries in South America there has been a surge of cases.

In the United States and the United Kingdom, many students have not yet returned to school and a new school year is a factor which generally increases the transmission of influenza. Although this has not been demonstrated Covid-19, said the schools, kindergartens and universities need to closely monitor the first signs of a resurgence in cases.

In addition to flu shots, the Academy of medical Sciences recommended campaigns to inform the public as well as individual counseling for at-risk groups. He also said, ensuring testing and trace work fine and can cope with overlapping symptoms of the flu and other winter infections.

He stressed that the projections are not a prediction but a possibility.

“The simulation shows that the deaths could be more with a new wave Covid-19 this winter, but this risk can be reduced if you take action immediately,” said Holgate.


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