There are claims from doctors in Italy that Covid-19 coronavirus might lose potential in Italy. But as most horror films might teach you, don’t assume that the threat has subsided until you are truly, positively, truly convinced that it happened.
This Reuters The video covered this claim by Dr. Alberto Zangrillo, who is the head of the San Raffaele Hospital in Milan, Italy:
As Reuters report indicatedZangrillo said that “in reality, the virus clinically no longer exists in Italy,” and that “the swabs carried out over the past 10 days showed a quantitative viral load that was really very small compared to what was done a month or two months ago. “Hmm,” clinically no more, “is a pretty bold claim. Did he check everyone in Italy for symptoms or viruses to confirm this statement? That will require a lot of swabs.
The WHO response to Zangrillo’s comments is the same as saying “what?” Just listen to what Mike Ryan, MD, MPH, Executive Director of the World Health Organization (WHO) Emergency Health Program at a press conference today:
As you can see, Ryan warns that “we must be very careful that we do not create the feeling that suddenly the virus has decided to become less pathogenic. That’s not the problem at all. “He stressed that the Covid-19 coronavirus is still a” killer virus. ”
AKate Kelland and Emilio Parodi reported Reuters, WHO’s Technical and Epidemiology Chief Maria Van Kerkhove said, “In terms of transmission, it has not changed, in terms of severity, it has not changed.”
Viruses such as Covid-19 coronavirus are not like Viagra. They do not automatically lose potential over time. Yes, there is a possibility that a less dangerous version of the virus could appear and eventually become more common than the initial version. There is also the possibility of “uh-oh” that a more dangerous version can appear. Both of these possibilities tend not to occur overnight.
Can moving closer to Summer potentially cause a decrease in virus activity? Of course, if Coona-19 coronavirus transmission shows the same type of seasonal fluctuation as the flu virus. I discussed this possibility before Forbes. It is still unclear whether this will happen. However, before making a bold statement about losing potential viruses, as they say with science and whiskey, you must have enough evidence.
This type of evidence only arises after extensive testing and supervision from time to time and in many locations. Testing in one hospital or even several hospitals over a ten day period will not tell you the whole story. It’s like going to Pizza Hut and using your visit there to make conclusions about pizza in general. Remember, not all pizzas are filled with cheese. Likewise, the number of viruses in swab testing at a hospital or even a group of hospitals does not always represent what is happening throughout the country.
Instead, you have to get a large enough sample over a long period of time to really understand what’s happening throughout the country and ensure that it’s not just a momentary decline. Extension of time means more than 10 days, which is still less than what might be the virus incubation period. For example, what if the virus spreads more among people who are less fortunate or more socially isolated who may not have ready access to health care and thus do not need to be seen by a doctor?
Also, keep in mind that Italy has indeed closed everything for a while with aggressive social distancing measures. So all of those efforts might reduce the transmission of the virus at least a little. Will the reopening of society in Italy lead to a bad sequel to what was a bad first installment, a kind of film Growing Up 2 after the first one Adult film? Can the sequel come in Autumn? It’s too early to say.
The situation in Italy is indeed bearable. More real scientific evidence is needed and reviewed by colleagues before concluding something new about the potential of the virus. Even if some changes occur in Italy, that doesn’t always mean that the same thing will eventually happen elsewhere. What happened in Italy could still remain in Italy.
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