As I write this, the National Hurricane Center gives the weather system over the Florida Strait a 70% chance of forming into a tropical or subtropical system within 48 hours and an 80% chance in the next five days. By the time you read this, we can have “Arthur” or be on the verge of the first hurricane called in the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season. This has sparked a frenzy of social media posts and weather articles noting it during the last decade of this “pre-season” subtropical or tropical system it’s rather common. Doyle Rice wrote provocative works USA Today asking if the hurricane season should start early from June 1. Quietly, I have also written works Forbes in recent years it has tempted that discussion. However, some experts say, “don’t be too fast my friend” to quote ESPN college football analyst Lee Corso.

Michael Lowry is a strategic planner and storm expert at FEMA and a former tropical expert on the Weather Channel. He tweeted this week that “subtropical development is a wildcard that makes inconsistent beginnings. Because of this, 99% of storm activity and almost all Cat 3+ storms occur between June and November. ” Professor Clark Evans is a tropical weather expert at the University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee. His group publishes 2016 research papers in Climate Journal found no significant evidence that the Atlantic basin cyclone season was extended.

Sam Lillo is one of my favorite followers on Twitter and is a Postdoctoral research in the NOAA-UC-Boulder CIRES program. He presented very convincing evidence why the June 1 start date was appropriate. Lillo points out in a series of tweets that there is no significant trend in May hurricane formation when you look at climatological records beyond the past decade. Lillo also tweeted the chart below noting that since the 1950s, there have been no noticeable changes in the tropical system in May. In fact, he pointed out, “Actually the trend is much more clearly seen in November.”

Evans, however, points out something very important in this week’s Tweet thread. Regarding the perception of the hurricane season, “I want to know if people see it as a meteorologist (in other words, to what extent are our constructs useful?) Or if they have different interpretations.” The point is valid because the weather scientists often get caught up in the little things, our processes, and our jargon and forget the main final goal, remind the public. Weather companies will need the help of colleagues Gina Eosco and other scientists working at the intersection of weather and social science about this type of question. However, specific scientific limitations and definitions are very important for our research and climatological notes.

Regardless of scientific debate or names, this weekend’s system presents several potential dangers. In the view of the National Hurricane Center on Friday morning“Regardless of its development, the disruption will continue to bring heavy rain to parts of the Florida Keys, southeast Florida and the Bahamas until Saturday. Tropical gusts of wind are also possible in all parts of the Florida Keys, southeast Florida and the Bahamas for the next day or two. “The” storm system that could be Arthur “will also cause dangerous sea conditions in the Bahamas and along the east coast of Florida, which already has a Gale warning.