KARACHI: The rupee, which has been under pressure lately, is expected to trade in a range bound next week, although traders say the likelihood of a small depreciation is likely.
Fears of an economic slowdown resulting from a nationwide resurgence of coronavirus cases could hurt rupee sentiment, as the government has signaled it will shut down major cities if the outbreak gets out of hand.
“We anticipate that demand from importers will remain high, especially as it approaches the end of the month. Supply is expected to be insufficient to meet demand. Overall the rupee is likely to hover with a slight downside possibility, “said one foreign exchange trader.
The rupee lost 94 paisas, or 0.61 percent, to close at 153.87 against the dollar in the upcoming week.
“Even though the macro is deteriorating, next week the rupee will be more or less range bound, unless we witness sharp weakness in regional currencies or adverse publication of REER. [Real Effective Exchange Rate] numbers, “Tresmark said in his weekly report on Saturday.
COVID-19 made its presence felt in the rupee, which fell sharply, trading as low as 154.15 before pairing some losses, as exporters sold ahead towards the rally.
While the pandemic helped fuel this rally, traders claimed that large deals related to coupon payments for Eurodollars were the main reason for the spike.
Market volatility is consistent with regional markets, which have become more volatile due to the sharp increase in daily cases. In India, the rupee is trading above the 75 / $ level after being range bound at the 72 level just a few weeks ago, “he said.
The current account posted a deficit of $ 47 million in March, making it the fourth month in a row. Foreign exchange reserves also decreased slightly.
Pakistan’s foreign reserves fell slightly to $ 23.212 billion in the week ended April 16 from $ 23.220 billion last week.
Foreign reserves held by the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) fell $ 63 million to $ 16.043 billion.
“The biggest casualty is the bond market where yields fell materially, said the report, adding that traders who had previously expected interest rates to rise, finally reversed their views as they realized that the impact related to COVID-19 may remain. for months to come. “
As a result, Pakistan was also able to raise Rs700 billion a few pips lower than the previous auction. Analysts expect interest rates to remain unchanged throughout 2021.
KARACHI: The rupee is likely to show a range bound movement against the dollar in the coming week due to higher demand for hard currencies from importers.
After holding on to a limited range last week, the rupee started its upward trend in the interbank market, as the political crisis (Senate election) eased and dollar inflows remained strong.
On Wednesday, the rupee closed at 155.74 against the dollar, seeing a sudden appreciation of 0.98 paisas, or 0.63 percent, its biggest one-day gain since August 27, 2020.
The inflows from remittances and the Roshan Digital Account, as well as a lower-than-expected decline in the Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER) contributed to the increase in the value of the rupee.
REER fell 1.05 percent in January to 95.3177 from 96.3266 recorded in December 2020. The decline in REER prompted exporters to sell dollars in the market.
The rupee rose to 155.45 on Thursday. However, it did not sustain upward momentum and closed lower at 155.97 against the dollar on Friday, as traders recalibrated their positions and started buying.
Traders expect the rupee to consolidate around current levels due to significant uptake in importers ordering ahead, hindering exporters’ sales.
“We can see demand for big companies and importers over the next week and the inflows may not be large enough to match that,” said a foreign exchange trader.
Balance of payments figures are yet to be released but current account is likely to remain negative in February which will create a current account deficit for the third consecutive month, suggesting Pakistan has experienced outflows. This may put pressure on the local currency.
However, the technical charts show the possibility of the rupee to retest 155 levels, making temporary highs at 154.42 levels in the near term. These levels were last seen during the pre-COVID-19 period.
The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) kept the interest rate unchanged at 7 percent on Friday. The decision was in line with market expectations.
SBP emphasized in his statement that growth and employment continued to recover and business sentiment was getting better, where the accommodative stance of monetary policy remains right to support the economic recovery.
The central bank in its future guidelines stated that they expect the monetary policy setting to remain broadly unchanged in the near term.
As the recovery becomes more durable and the economy returns to full capacity, the MPC expects any adjustments in the policy rate to be measured and gradually reach a somewhat positive real interest rate.
SBP keeps its current account deficit estimate for FY2021 below one percent of gross domestic product.
Analysts said despite May and July, rate hikes could be pushed further towards the end of the year, amid a resurgence in coronavirus cases in Pakistan and the world.
KARACHI: The rupee is expected to remain stable against the dollar in the coming week due to a suitable demand and supply from the greenback, dealers said.
“Local units are expected to follow a range-bound trading pattern for the next week. Any increase in dollar demand for import payments could easily be covered by the available inflows on the market, ”said a foreign exchange trader.
“Taking cues from this week, we anticipate the local unit to trade around current levels in the upcoming sessions. The next range should be 157 to 157.15 per dollar, “he added. The domestic currency is trading in a 157.08-157.14 range against the dollar this week.
Analysts said the Roshan Digital Account’s remittances and inflows momentum continued with previously recorded $ 2.26 billion in February (up 24 percent) and another $ 671 million flowing through March 11 due to the latter.
About $ 30 million is also in the Special Convertible Rupees Account, mostly in bonds.
The rupee is almost steady and capped some of the higher gains it made last week, despite these inflows.
“Futures sales by exporters have slowed, but more importantly, dollar liquidity on the interbank market has miraculously disappeared,” Tresmark said in a report, citing a forex trader in an advertisement.
the bank, adding “it looks like stakeholders are evaluating market acceptance at this level, while emerging political developments may also be playing on traders’ minds.”
While new data for exports is not available, analysts expect exports to fall slightly in February.
Rupees-denominated government securities such as T-bills and PIB have once again become attractive to the world, as hot money inflows have been paced, and will likely outstrip future outflows.
Foreign investors sold $ 60 million in net securities from July 1, 2020 to March 11, 2021, according to the latest figures from the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP).
Damage shows they have
invested a total of $ 601.21 million and sold $ 661.58 million in short- and long-term government documents in the period reviewed.
“Higher yields compared to global interest rates are one of the considerations. Another consideration is the improvement in the balance of payments in line with the improving global liquidity situation which has given confidence to international fixed income investors, ”said Samiullah Tariq, head of research at Pak-Kuwait Investment Company. “So I think inflows depend on these two considerations.”
Analysts are of the view that interest rates may not rise in March monetary policy, as the SBP suggested, but the likelihood of a rate hike will increase in May, where the trajectory of Covid will be critical to the outcome.
Aerial view of the Akaroa waterfront, New Zealand. Photo / 123rf
At the pier at Akaroa Harbor, waves slamming lazily on the pile. Today’s harbor is milky white, the mud from the Rakaia and Rangitata rivers hanging in the water, having completed its long journey from the Southern Alps and across the Canterbury Plains. It turned out that the water turned powder blue from a distance, but from where we sat, it was icy cold and clear.
Just back from the water, diners sit under sunscreen on wicker chairs outside the Bully Hayes bar, and watch yachts and schooners bobbing on the sparkling water just steps away. A gull full of hope hovered overhead, watching the chip situation. From our point of view, cold beer in hand, this could be France on a sunny summer day – if it weren’t for the sound of Fat Freddy’s Drop bringing a breeze. And the fact in New Zealand that we are sitting in the caldera of an ancient, flooded volcano.
Akaroa has so many stories, and so much history, to unravel. Made by volcanoes, inhabited by Māori, founded by the French, claimed by the British.
It’s a French heritage largely traded in the city, but the city’s authenticity, albeit based on fact and history, comes with a hint of flicker – a medieval marketing tool for luring tourists to the city.
It is true that this is Canterbury’s oldest city, and indeed it was founded by about 60 French settlers who arrived in 1840. But the French colonizers never got the right footing (the British quickly declared sovereignty over all of New Zealand to cut France off) and at The 1950s there is only one surviving example of French architecture in Akaroa – the courthouse, which is now part of the Akaroa Museum.
In the 1960s, French suddenly made a comeback – the city’s oldest streets with French origins were renamed “rue” and the modern identity of Akaroa began.
It is a very picturesque place, in a sheltered harbor surrounded by historic buildings and beautifully manicured gardens. It’s fun to walk along the “street”, to eat Toulouse sausages from a local butcher, or see posters for the annual “French festival”. To feel like you are in a place slightly different from other parts of New Zealand.
If you want to understand Akaroa’s history and heritage, a stop at the museum is a must. This is where we learn that Captain Jean-Francois de Surville was sailing these waters at the same time as Cook on the Endeavor, in the late 1760s. (Even though Cook named the area Banks Peninsula, he actually mistook it for an island). The French established themselves in the area, naming the bay of Port Louis-Philippe, creating a whaling and naval station, a doctor’s office, and a built road. For a time, French culture and language dominated.
The descendants of those 60 French settlers remain, and indeed lately, a French accent is heard, a more recent import from Europe. On the burial slopes of French L’Aube Hill, the names Pierre, Libeau and and Fleuri attest to the authenticity of the relationship.
How to see Hector’s famous dolphin
The French may have lured us to the city, but it’s another famous resident we’d love to see today – Hector’s dolphin, one of the smallest dolphins in the world. Their number is disputed, but there is generally an agreement between 9,000 and 15,000 in the world. Here on the Banks Peninsula, about 1500 reside.
We went with Coast Up Close, a small business run by skipper and owner Tony, who has been taking tourists out on Wairiri – a fishing boat built in Invercargill – for 10 years. It’s the perfect day for that, with clear skies and clear water.
In fact dolphins prefer small shelters. Because sharks don’t use echo locations, they prefer to hunt when the water is clear. Dolphins like a little mud for camouflage. Even so, they didn’t keep their distance. As we emerged from the harbor, our first sighting occurred within minutes. In between the sightings, Tony commented on the port, geology and history of Akaroa.
Judging from the water, Akaroa’s natural setting is clearer. We sailed across a volcanic crater, been extinct for about 6 million years, and now inundated by the sea. This massive cone, which forms the backdrop of the Akaroa mountains, has been eroded to only two-thirds its size.
As we sailed further afield, we saw Ōnuku Marae from Ngai Tahu, and a pretty little church nearby, built in 1871, one of the oldest non-denominational churches in New Zealand. Between dolphins, we saw red-billed gulls and white pigeons circling, taking advantage of the hunting of kahawai under the waves, pushing bait fish to the surface.
The benefits of a small boat aren’t just the comments and personal service you get from the captain. It’s also maneuverable, getting you straight to the shoreline and around (and sometimes through) rock. They do things a little differently on this ship. If the dolphins show up, that’s fine, but if they don’t, it’s up to them – captain Tony won’t chase them. He has been known to jump from the side when he wants a little fishing. On our return trip, a free diver approached his kayak to chat, and showed him the catch of the day – quinine and cray. He’s 75 years old. The young backpackers on the ship were flabbergasted.
But dolphins are stars and whenever they appear the deck is filled with oohs and aahs. They easily approached, surfed in the pressure waves that the hulls created beneath the surface, ducked and dived in front of us.
Back ashore at Akaroa
Back on land, like Mad Dogs and Englishmen, we took a walk in the midday sun. The small town is divided in two by a promenade, where locals and visitors stroll among the shops and cafes. But summer days can get very hot here. As in Europe, on hot days the locals retreated inside, or into the beautiful flower-filled gardens lining the streets, the roses falling on the wooden fences.
We walked to the ocean end of the Rue Balguerie, and watched the kids bomb from the pier, then came back and found ourselves at Harbar, a small restaurant and beach bar situated directly on the water, overlooking the French Bay. We settle for cold beer, gin-soaked mussels and fries, and watch the boat toss around. It may be summer on the Riviera, but here, a unique slice of Aotearoa.
Get out at the harbor and see the dolphins
Hectors dolphins are a must. Coast Up Close takes you out on their little kauri launch, allowing you to get up close and personal with the incredible dolphins, seals, sea caves and cliffs of the Banks Peninsula. The 2.5 hour cruise leaves twice a day. coastupclose.co.nz
Go sea kayaking with penguins
Across the Banks Peninsula, you’ll find the Pōhatu Marine Reserve, which is home to the largest Little Penguin colony on mainland New Zealand. Day trips on the Pohatu Penguins will pick you up from Akaroa, take you on a scenic tour with stops, across the peninsula, then sends you out into the water to see penguins as well as seals, seabirds and other wildlife. pohatu.co.nz
Walk the Banks Track
This three day and three night hike is a hidden gem. New Zealand’s oldest private walk offers stunning views through farms and forests, charming accommodation – and some well-worth the hike. It’s just enough challenge to make you feel good enough about yourself. Along the way, you’ll find up-close wildlife, unique huts, and the picturesque Hinewai Nature Reserve, an ecological restoration project. It is self-catering, but package carts are included. For an extra $ 50, you can have a chilled cabin that is driven into the cottage, so you don’t have to skimp on wine, cheese, and sausages. bankstrack.co.nz
Visit the Giant’s House
The Giant’s House is a sculpture garden created by artist Josie Martin. This is an eccentric Gaudi-esque mosaic display, including sculptures of animals, people, flowers and chairs. You can walk there from town – walk straight down Rue Balguerie from Beach Rd. thegiantshouse.co.nz