As relations between Canberra and Beijing fall to new lows, Australian universities could lose billions of dollars in revenue if China decides to aim for the country’s third largest export.

China has imposed a series of economic sanctions punishing Australian merchandise in recent months, including a 200 percent tariff on wine, but has so far taken no action to disrupt the education sector.

Chinese students make up nearly a third of Australia’s $ 35 billion international student market. Last year, Australian universities grossed more than $ 7 billion in fees from an estimated 164,000 Chinese students, which contributed a total of $ 12.2 billion to the economy including accommodation and other living expenses.

With the COVID-19 travel ban still in effect, around 62,000 Chinese students are currently studying online from abroad. But if Chinese students don’t return once borders reopen, Australian universities face devastating financial repercussions.

For the Chinese Communist Party – which has stepped up its attacks on Australia, culminating this week with a senior diplomat sharing a processed image of an Australian soldier – it would be as simple as cutting off online access through its internet firewall, and banning it. students from traveling to Australia.

“I think it is almost inevitable at this point that China will take action against the higher education sector, given the way China has incorporated itself into our universities,” said Queensland University student Drew Pavlou.

“(But) it might be hard to imagine them just turning the taps off, given how important this university is to the Chinese elite as a way for their children to earn these prestigious credentials.”

Pavlou was expelled for alleged offenses related to activism on his campus that supports Hong Kong and criticizes the CCP, and was part of the July 2019 protests that turned violent when “ultranationalist Chinese students” broke into and started attacking participants.

Since then he’s campaigned for the federal government to investigate foreign interference at the university, and brought the Chinese Consul General to justice for allegedly inciting violence against him. The Brisbane Magistrates Court rejected the complaint because of diplomatic immunity.

The state-run Global Times has published a series of articles this year advising Chinese students to reconsider studying at “racist” Australian universities – citing Mr Pavlou as an example – and in June China’s Ministry of Culture and Tourism issued a travel warning for “racist” risks ” in Australia.

Louisa Bochner of the Australian Institute for Strategic Policy agreed that it is unlikely that China will take immediate action against Australian universities given their importance to the middle class. “The higher education sector is different from our other major exports in Australia,” he said.

“For example, with wine or barley, the net effect on China’s middle-class consumers is small – it’s unlikely that there will be a lot of excitement or difficulty switching to other products. However, for higher education, it’s more complicated.”

He said there were fewer alternatives and tensions with the US, Canada and Britain meant that China would not be interested in transferring students to these countries. “Australia has high-end and affordable education that Chinese students need,” he said.

For now, the university is optimistic.

Australian International Education Association chief executive Phil Honeywood said there has been no sign of an official policy from the Chinese government targeting the Australian education sector.

“We haven’t seen any evidence so far that the Chinese government is taking positive steps to stop its citizens studying with Australian education providers,” he said. “Earlier this year there were travel warnings issued in terms of travel safety to Australia, but they are issuing them for a number of countries, and that’s not a directive (not to travel).”

Mr Honeywood said the IEAA “believes that to date people-to-person and institution-to-institution relationships still support international student enrollment”.

He noted that an international student plane was returning to land in the Northern Territory this week, and among 63 were a “number” of students from mainland China headed to Charles Darwin University.

And on Thursday, Mr Honeywood spoke with the principal of Melbourne’s international private school Haileybury, which runs a campus in China. “They experienced a 25 percent increase in their Chinese student enrollments,” he said.

According to Ms Bochner, even if the CCP decides to use the higher education sector as a “vector of retribution”, it is unclear how it will do.

“It’s not as clear as ‘turning off the tap’ like other exports – are they going to send students back who, last week, arrived back in Australia?” she says. “Or will they prevent new registrations from next year? My general opinion is that we are unlikely to see any immediate retaliation.”

Mr Pavlou, however, said perhaps the CCP could improve its position by trying to use its influence more strongly on campus – knowing the university was powerless to act.

“You see with the Chinese student associations, they pride themselves on their relationship with the Chinese consulate – they are basically run as an extension of the consulate,” said Pavlou. “The case in UQ where you had a rally that turned violent and there was an attack on Chinese critics, that could definitely be a further possibility.”

She highlighted recent controversy after UNSW deleted an interview with Human Rights Watch Australia director Elaine Pearson about Hong Kong, following strong backlash from some of the Chinese student community.

“Higher education obviously doesn’t know how to deal with this problem,” he said.

“It will be interesting to see if Australian universities have learned from my case how destructively Beijing seems to bow – or if the economic imperatives mean they are willing to face harsh criticism at home to keep relations with Beijing strong.”

– News.com.au