Tag Archives: economic growth

Is the US population on the decline? More ponzi demographics | Instant News

With year-end and decade-end US population estimates released, Ponzi demographics are again appearing in news headlines, economic reports and investment commentary across the country.

The basic message that the proponents of Ponzi’s demographics want to swallow is: economic growth requires population growth. But like all pyramid schemes, Ponzi demographics is a scam.

Self-interest, including many market economists, investment advisers, business leaders, and even political opportunists returned to resonance alarm bells more than reported a decline in US population growth.

The latest headlines include, “The American population growth slows down creeps “,” the US population smallest growth in at least 120 years “and” the US is racing for the slowest growth since the Spanish Flu and the economy impact already proven. ” Others stressed that the 2020 US population projections are likely to close the slowest decade of population growth in the country’s history.

The high mortality rate is alarming. The woman who gives birth to more children than she wants is really worrying. The high rates of illegal immigration and trafficking in persons are alarming. But slower US population growth is not a cause for concern.

Although often disguised in economic jargon and accounting spreadsheets coupled with fears of financial decline, the Ponzi demographics are essentially pyramid schemes that aim to make more money for some by adding more people through population growth (i.e., natural increases and immigration).

The strategy underlying Ponzi’s demographics is straightforward: privatizing profits and disseminating costs arising from increased population growth.

Population growth is simply the result of births minus deaths plus net migration. To better understand trends in US population growth, it is helpful to briefly consider each of the three demographic components.

Although far from the leading position, Italy, Japan and Switzerland have reached that difference, the American average life expectancy at birth has increased by more than 10 years since the middle of the 20th century (ie, from 68 years in 1950 to about 79 years).

However, when mortality increases suddenly, as happened during the Coronavirus pandemic, ringing the warning bells is definitely justified.

With approx 360,000 COVID-19 deaths in the US – far more than in any other country and about 20 percent of the world’s total – are thought the coronavirus may have minus The average American life expectancy at birth is a year or more.

Regarding births, US fertility is below the replacement rate of 2.1 births per woman as is the case in every developed country and many developing countries, including China. In 2018, American fertility dropped to a record low 1.7 births per woman.

Many of the forces pushing US fertility below the replacement level are too strong for governments, the private sector, and other institutions to overcome. In short, men with economic, political and social power were unable to persuade American women to bear more children than they did desired, resulting in a lower replacement fertility rate.

In addition to efforts to increase low fertility, Ponzi demographics also rely on immigration, including migration without permits, for additional population growth to boost profits. The standard slogan in the campaign is “the country desperately needs increased immigration,” even when unemployment is high.

Immigration to the US is the highest in the world. With countries receiving more than 1 million immigrants every year, the total number of immigrants in the country is estimated to have reached 45 million. The number represents about 14 percent of the total population, nearly tripling the share of 5 percent in 1970 and approaching a record high of 15 percent in 1890.

Taking fertility, mortality and migration into account, the US population has been increasing since its inception. American residents have increased every decade since the first census in 1790, exceeding 50 million in 1880, 100 million in 1920, 200 million in 1970 and 300 million in 2010.

During the 21st century, America population increases of 10 percent in the first decade and is projected to increase by 8 percent between 2010 and 2020, from 309 million to 333 million.

The American population is projected to continue to grow, reaching more than 400 million in 2060. Some would like to see America’s population get bigger than projected figures, maybe even reach 1 billion, an outcome that is unlikely in the future.

Ponzi demographers avoid answering questions about how long America’s population should continue to grow. The reason for this is largely because they want the high rate of US population growth to go beyond the foreseeable future.

When faced with environmental problems such as climate change, global warming, environmental pollution, pollution or shortage of water and other important natural resources, Ponzi demographers usually dismiss these concerns as alarmists or argue that they should be addressed by a growing population.

Ponzi’s demographic advocacy for higher population growth for America was ultimately unsustainable. Higher population growth will hinder efforts to improve the quality of life for Americans today and for future generations.

In short, slower US population growth is not a cause for concern. Move gradually towards population stabilization, as recommended over 50 years ago by US Commission on Population and the American Future, is not a panacea for America’s problems. However, this will make it easier to address problems such as climate change, environmental degradation, poverty, homelessness, extreme socio-economic inequality and human rights abuses.

Joseph Chamie is an independent consultant demographer, former director of the United Nations Population Division and author of numerous publications on population issues, including international migration, fertility, mortality, growth, gender and aging.


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New Zealand, Taiwan Makes Most Sense for the Covid Travel Bubble | Instant News

Photographer: Brendon O’Hagan / Bloomberg

Last minute decision by Hong Kong and Singapore to pause the planned travel bubble highlighting the urgency of unfettered cross-border movement with Covid-19 still looming and capable of soaring, even in places where conditions are relatively good. But allowing people to sail overseas without quarantine is still beneficial if done between the right territories.

Enter two completely different places. Taiwan recorded no local infections for 225 days on Monday, among the longest Covid-free cases anywhere. This is an achievement made even more remarkable by the fact that the population is a staggering 23 million. And although New Zealand and its 4.8 million inhabitants have not fared well, the remote country is the world leader in tackling the pandemic.

Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern’s dexterous will to immediately implement a lockdown when new cases require economic benefits that may even be brought back on a limited basis on free trips. Taiwan deserves an award for its leadership in detecting and dealing with pandemics, and has won a lot of praise from the international political system that is still freezing it.

The travel bubble has proven a complex concept since its launch as a solution for the battered global aviation and leisure industry. The fact is, they are following the whims of the virus. Asia’s leading global financial center was excited to continue with the former, comforted by Singapore which has had no local cases since 11 November. stopped over the weekend, before the first aircraft could fly, after Hong Kong cases soared. New Zealand and Australia seem a natural fit for their own corridors, but the recent turmoil in the state of South Australia highlights the stakes that are ongoing.

As my partner Daniel Moss noted Monday, the government reserves the right to debate the balance between economic growth and the level of infection it considers tolerable. A total Ardern re-election in October and the continued popularity of Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen gave both leaders the political capital to take manageable risks.

Both countries proved that democracies that take quick and rational action can reduce the financial costs of restricted travel and trade. Taiwan is one of the few economies expected to grow this year. 8% increase New Zealand retail sales for the third quarter compared to a year earlier indicates the gains that could come from the initial tight action.

Viral Success

There is talk of a Taiwan-New Zealand dating plan back to at least May, but technical standards including procedures for tracking, tracing, and sharing information remain formidable challenges, Taiwanese officials told me. There is a feeling, at least in Taiwan, that common interests are moving forward.

Allows wealthy Taiwan travelers to fly to Long White Cloud Country for the southern hemisphere, summer will be a direct blow to the New Zealand economy. International tourism account for more than 20% of exports of goods and services and 5.8% of gross domestic product. An additional 4% of GDP comes from supporting industries, while this sector accounts for around 8.4% of the working workforce.

Taiwan’s economy is less dependent on tourism, but Taiwan has worked hard to make it Island of Formosa worthy goal. The government has spent years promoting Taiwan’s food, culture and scenery to travelers from Japan, South Korea and Southeast Asia to offset the decline in mainland tourists caused by frosty relations between Taipei and Beijing. Overall visitor numbers rose to last year’s record.


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Australia’s trade clash with China is a lesson in what Beijing’s true power means | Instant News

Imagine for a moment the view of Beijing. It looks like this.

The Chinese Communist Party has watched the economic miracle. Within three decades there has been a country that once was unable to feed itself and turn it into an economic powerhouse.

More than half a billion people have been lifted out of poverty. The world has never seen anything like it.

And the Party said that China is good for the world.

It is now the biggest engine of global economic growth. By the end of this decade it will likely overtake the United States as the world’s largest economy.

The rise of China was peaceful. These have joined in a global rules-based order: members of the World Trade Organization, World Health Organization, five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council.

It is a signatory to global agreements such as the Paris Climate Accords and is involved in peacekeeping and humanitarian operations.

China by any measure is a global power. Now it rivals the United States. The Communist Party asks, why should people like Australia, a country whose prosperity is linked to China, have to lecture?

It is Australia’s largest trading partner. The power of the Chinese economy, thirsty for our resources, has sustained 30 years of uninterrupted Australian economic growth.

Xi Jinping clapped his hands in front of the red background
Chinese President Xi Jinping heard foreigners look down on China again.(AP: Andy Wong)

Why isn’t Beijing upset?

When Australia calls for an investigation into the origins of the coronavirus without first getting in touch with China, why isn’t Beijing upset? Of course it will reciprocate. Australian exporters will always be in the firing line.

When Australia announced it had signed a new military pact with Japan, Beijing was humiliated. We should expect that.

Beijing wonders: are we completely indifferent to the deep animosity between China and Japan? The Japanese invasion and occupation of China during the 1930s and 40s is a wound on the soul of the Chinese people. Millions of people were killed. China is still demanding a full apology from Japan.

Scott Morrison met the elbow with Yoshihide Suga.  They smile.
A defense pact between Australia and Japan, which was approved by the prime ministers, disappointed China.(ABC News: Yumi Asada)

Chinese school children are raised with a history of contempt: how China was exploited by foreign powers since the mid-18th century. They were told that it was the Communist Party that restored the nation’s honor when Mao Zedong declared a Communist revolution.

Xi Jinping, China’s most powerful leader since Mao, vowed to complete China’s major rejuvenation, to return it to the pinnacle of global power.

The Chinese have a saying: “If you want to know someone’s thoughts, listen to the words.”


In 2013, not long after taking power, Xi warned Party leaders that “enemy forces at home and abroad keep trying to spoil our party “.

It says that without socialism, there will be chaos, and the communist generation has been willing sacrifice and even shed blood for the country.

China, he told the Party, must prepare for a long period of conflict.

Currently, Australia is in Xi’s line of sight. When the Federal Government criticizes China’s detention of Uighur Muslims or the crackdown on pro-democracy protests in Hong Kong, it hears echoes of “a hundred years of national humiliation”.

There is no ‘next’ China

It has been one year this week since the possible Coronavirus outbreak in the city of Wuhan. Xi Jinping is now claiming victory over the virus in what he calls “people’s war“.

China’s economy is recovering with some forecasts of nine percent growth in 2021.

Global management firm McKinsey says clients often ask “where is China next?” There is no next China. It said: “China’s economy is unique and will maintain its primary role as the engine of post-pandemic global consumption growth”.

And Australia will return to ride on Beijing’s coat tail. In this year’s Federal Budget, Treasurer Josh Frydenberg based some of his growth projections on China’s post-COVID-19 rapid recovery.

The Chinese Communist Party views America – ravaged by a virus and deeply divided politically – and claims China’s authoritarian capitalism model is superior.

The view from Beijing is that China is a great power and demands respect.

Australia is under Chinese influence and will always feel the heat, maybe more than any other country. We are the canaries in the coal mine. Other countries are waiting for us to see how we pass through this dangerous diplomatic strait.

The view from Beijing is that we are a white Western country, dependent on Western domination that China does not believe in.

China’s foreign ministry spokesman, Zhao Lijian, said Australia was creating problems with China and “those who cause problems must be the ones who solve problems“.

This is the world we live in. China sees itself as the “Middle Kingdom” – the center of the world – and expects other countries to pay their respects.

It’s not just about diplomacy

Beijing sees this moment as ideological and historical. It is not just diplomacy and the stakes will only get higher. Surely no one still believes in the old shibboleth that we don’t have to choose between our American alliance and our Chinese trade dependence?

Beijing has shown that it will make that choice for us.

Scott Morrison is right to say that Australia will “act in our behalf and in accordance with our values”.

But we’ll pay the price. Morrison said China chose us to “Australia to Australia”.

Beijing answered: Exactly.


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Sutton Waterford Costume Closing, Family-owned Video Game Toy Box buying space | Local News | Instant News

After 34 years in business, Sutton’s Costumes & Tuxedos in Waterford will be closed to make room for another old family-owned shop.

Chris Sutton, who started the business in 1986 with her husband Doug and a $ 10 gorilla costume, recently sold Sutton and her decades of inventory to Cathy and Doug Pumfrey, owners Toy Box Video Game located just down the road on the Dixie Highway.

Inside Sutton’s Costumes & Tuxedos in Waterford on Thursday, November 19, 2020.

The new owners intend to turn the 6,000-square-foot space into a permanent home for their game shop, which specializes in resales and repairs. The couple started their business two decades ago from the former Summit Place Mall.

“I want to thank the community that has supported us over the years,” said Sutton. “It’s the people who keep us going, we really love our work. But it is very labor intensive and time consuming. For us, it’s been quite a while, we’re ready to sell and move on. Life goes on. “

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Inside Sutton’s Costumes & Tuxedos in Waterford on Thursday, November 19, 2020.

Sutton, who has lived in Florida with his family since 1992, has sold the business to several owners over the years on contract. He recently sold the shop four years ago to its former owner. This year they decided to sell it back to Sutton, who was contacted by the Pumfreys about buying the business.

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Inside Sutton’s Costumes & Tuxedos in Waterford on Thursday, November 19, 2020.

Costume rental shops, weddings, and proms are long-standing staples in southeast Michigan. They accept clients such as Kid Rock, The Detroit Pistons, Detroit Red Wings, Erebus Haunted Attraction and Miss Michigan USA contestants. What started as a love of vintage clothing and auction hunting turned into a career of creating custom, handcrafted items for people from all walks of life.

At the top of Sutton’s most memorable creations are the costumes of the pair King Henry Henry VIII and Queen Anne Boleyn, with the character Boleyn appearing to be holding their own severed heads. The two-person dragon that breathed real flames, with the princess character sitting on the dragon, was in second place.

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Inside Sutton’s Costumes & Tuxedos in Waterford on Thursday, November 19, 2020.

“People want someone who is trusted and famous to make costumes and word of mouth is great. We have excellent tailors and employees who stay with us through hardships and hardships, “said Sutton.

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Inside Sutton’s Costumes & Tuxedos in Waterford on Thursday, November 19, 2020.

Gloria Randall is one of those employees. For 27 years he worked at Sutton’s as a sales associate and was an integral part of continued business success, said Sutton. Randall is currently volunteering to help the Pumfrey family clean store inventory,

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Gloria Randall holding an Elvis jacket.

“I am very happy there. People are very sad that they are closing. We have people who come in and have tears in their eyes, they have been here for a long time, some of them since they were kids, “said Randall. “I live because I like the people, it’s fun and family owned, and it makes a big difference because you end up being friends, you know?”

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Gloria Randall browsing the shelves at Sutton’s Costumes.

The Pumfreys know very little about how friends and employees can become like family. Jimm Pumfrey, son of Cathy and Doug, met his current best friend Nick Vinsant through their children, who attended the same elementary school. The pair are now at the forefront of a new era of Toy Box Video Games, fueled by a multi-generational love of gaming.

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Cathy and Doug Pumfrey (left) with their son Jimm Pomfrey and grandson, owners of the Toy Box Video Games in Waterford.

“We used to play Atari a lot, our fingers and hands would cramp,” said Doug Pumfrey. “When our eldest son was born, we went to Toys R Us and somehow got the brilliant idea of ​​opening a toy shop. We’ve added video games and stopped toys gradually. We’ll try this new space, make it big or go home. “

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Doug Pumfrey pulled one of the many elaborate hats for sale from his shelves at Sutton’s Costumes.

And getting big, once the coronavirus pandemic was under control, was exactly what the family had hoped for. A $ 100,000 renovation is planned for the building that will dig into historical elements such as its decorative ceiling, increase space for gaming events and tournaments, and properly house tens of thousands of games and repair areas. The family paid $ 395,000 for the building, business, and all remaining inventory.

“Games are important to all of us,” said Vinsant. “We want to build something real here. There were so many gamers in the area and area, but nowhere, once it was safe, to gather. We want to build a community, bring in video gamers and tabletop gamers, and be a home to everything gaming-related. “

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Nick Vinsant fixes a Pokémon video game cartridge.

Toy Box Video Games anticipates moving to a new location in the summer of 2021.

For now, the group is focused on selling the remains of Sutton’s creations that still line every wall of the building. Everything in the store is at least 50% off. The shop is only open by appointment. Appointments can be made in advance or the same day by calling 248-623-5905.

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23 Year Old Sues Australia For Climate Risk in Bonds | Instant News

Photographer: Carla Gottgens / Bloomberg

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The Australian government defended the class action lawsuit claiming it was misleading investors by failing to disclose the impact of climate risk in bonds.

Explore dynamic updates of the earth’s main data points

Amid a growing wave of climate litigation around the world, 23-year-old law student Kathleen O’Donnell said the Australian Office of Financial Management and Treasury is deceiving investors by not disclosing climate change along with other financial risks in her exchange-traded debt. He wants all marketing to stop until its disclosure is made.

In its first hearing in Federal Court in Melbourne on Tuesday, the case was adjourned after the Court Bernard Murphy ordered O’Donnell’s attorney to detail the damage caused and fix the technical issues related to the representative suit. The case will return to court in mid-2021.

The lawsuit emerged as a global debt investor wrestle by assessing the long-term effects of rising global temperatures and how much economic growth must be sacrificed in order for countries to adapt. Sweden’s central bank last year canceled its holdings of debt issued by Western Australia and Queensland – the states responsible for most of Australia’s fossil fuel exports – amid growing concerns about threats posed by climate change.

“The concept that every debt issue must consider and disclose a series of material financial risks is not new,” he said Sarah Barker, head of climate risk governance at law firm Minter Ellison. “What’s new about the claim is that this is the first time a lawsuit has been made in a climate risk context.”

The Australian Treasury and Financial Management Office declined to comment on the lawsuit.

This case appears in the middle a spike in litigation from Europe to Mexico over the past five years as activists have used the courts to pressure governments, companies and investors to act against global warming. Last week, a $ 57 billion ($ 41 billion) pension fund sued in Australia for disclosing climate change risks settled the lawsuit with commitments for net zero-emissions in its portfolio by 2050.


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