Tag Archives: Employment / Unemployment Data / Policy

Brazil created a record 394,989 formal jobs in October | Instant News


BRASILIA (Reuters) – Formal job creation in Brazil spiked to a record high in October, figures showed on Thursday, as the dominant service sector bounced back to account for about 40% of new jobs.

FILE PHOTOS: Young men look at job listings posted on a street in downtown Sao Paulo, Brazil April 24, 2019. REUTERS / Amanda Perobelli

The 394,989 net formal jobs were created in October, the economy ministry said, marking the fourth straight month of gains and significantly more than the 233,500 forecast in a Reuters economist poll.

The economic ministry chart below shows the scale of job growth in October compared to the same month in previous years.

Graph: Brazilian formal employment growth –

That reduced the net number of formal job losses in the first 10 months of this year to 171,139, the ministry said, also significantly less than 2015 and 2016 when Brazil was last in recession.

Welcoming the record, Economy Minister Paulo Guedes said that Brazil could end the year with no formal job losses at all as the economic rebound in the second half of the year brought back most of the jobs lost in the first half.

“In this recession … we don’t lose focus, we bounce back, and we create jobs very quickly. We can reach the end of the year without losing our formal jobs. Zero, “said Guedes, adding that this represents” a historic year for the Brazilian economy “.

In October, 1.55 million jobs were created and 1.15 million cut, the ministry said. Services leads with 156,766 new jobs, followed by trade (115,646) and industry (86,426).

In the first 10 months of 2015 and 2016, 818,918 and 751,816 jobs were lost, respectively, according to economy ministry figures.

The figures also show that the formal labor market in October consisted of 38.6 million workers, the highest since March this year as desperate workers returned to find work.

Official labor market data for the three months to September will be released next week. The unemployment rate is expected to rise to a new high of 14.9% from 14.4%.

Reporting by Jamie McGeever; Edited by Angus MacSwan

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Germany’s second partial lockdown is weighing on consumer morale | Instant News


BERLIN (Reuters) – German consumer morale fell further into December as a partial lockdown to curb a wave of the coronavirus in Europe’s second largest economy hit household income expectations as well as their willingness to buy, a survey showed on Thursday.

FILE PHOTOS: People wearing face masks take pictures on the shopping street Schloss Strasse, as the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak continues, in Berlin, Germany, 24 October 2020. REUTERS / Fabrizio Bensch

The GfK Institute said its consumer sentiment index, based on a survey of about 2,000 Germans, fell to -6.7 in November from -3.2 in the previous month.

The figure missed Reuters forecasts for a narrower decline to -5.0.

GfK consumer expert, Rolf Buerkl, said although retail shops have remained open so far, the closure of restaurants, bars, hotels and entertainment venues since November 2 has clouded consumers’ moods.

The increasing number of COVID-19 increases uncertainty so that more Germans are holding back their money, Buerkl added.

“The hopes for a speedy recovery that emerged in early summer are definitely dashed,” said Buerkl.

German business morale also fell in November, suggesting that the economy will shrink in the fourth quarter due to new restrictions, the Ifo agency said on Tuesday.

Germany’s infection rate has risen and its cases are close to one million, with daily deaths from COVID-19 hitting a record 410 on Wednesday.

Chancellor Angela Merkel agreed with the leaders of Germany’s 16 federal states to extend and tighten measures against the coronavirus until at least December 20 and they are likely to extend this to January, he said on Wednesday.

“Only a real drop in infections and easing of restrictions will bring even more optimism,” said Buerkl, adding that the rate of infection in the coming weeks will determine whether consumer sentiment can stabilize again.

The consumer climate indicator predicts the development of real private consumption in the following month.

A reading of the indicator above zero indicates growth in private consumption from year to year. Below zero values ‚Äč‚Äčindicate a decrease compared to the same period last year.

According to GfK, a one-point change in the indicator corresponds to a 0.1 percent year-on-year change in private consumption.

The “willingness to buy” indicator represents a balance between positive and negative responses to the question: “Do you think now is a good time to buy big things?”

The income expectations sub-index reflects expectations about developments in household finances in the next 12 months.

The additional business cycle expectations index reflects the assessment of those who question the general economic situation in the next 12 months.

Reporting by Riham Alkousaa; Edited by Michael Nienaber

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Prospect of Brazil’s interest rate in 2021 rising to 3.00% – cenbank survey | Instant News


BRASILIA, Nov 23 (Reuters) – Brazil’s inflation outlook for next year rose for the fifth week in a row, a central bank survey showed on Monday, prompting economists to raise its year-end average interest rate forecast to 3.00% from 2, 75%.

Economists also raised their 2020 inflation outlook for the 15th consecutive week, according to the central bank’s latest “FOCUS” weekly survey.

Inflation in Latin America’s largest economy has shot higher recently due to a surge in food and commodity prices triggered by a weakening exchange rate and supply shocks due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

The Ministry of Economy and central bank officials insisted that the spike was “temporary” and had nothing to do with long-term inflation expectations, which remained strong and well below the central bank’s official target.

But steadily higher increases now spread to the interest rate outlook. Economists now expect the central bank’s Selic rate to end next year at 3.00%, compared with 2.75% last week.

That would imply a 100 basis point tightening from the current record low of 2.00%.

The FOCUS survey of about 100 economists on Monday showed the average inflation forecast for the end of 2021 rose to 3.4% from 3.2% in the previous week.

That’s still below, but closer to, the central bank’s 2021 official goal of 3.75%.

The average end-of-2020 inflation forecast rose for the 15th week to 3.5% from 3.3%, still well below the central bank’s target of 4.00%. A month ago, however, the forecast was 3.0%.

Central bank president Roberto Campos Neto recently said the surge was “temporary, but we are clearly monitoring it”. (Reporting by Jamie McGeever; Editing by Alex Richardson)

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New Zealand’s central bank will review restrictions on mortgage lending, delaying the increase in bank capital | Instant News


WELLINGTON (Reuters) – New Zealand’s Central Bank said on Wednesday that it will consult next month on whether to reimpose limits on the number of “high-risk loans” banks can make, amid growing fears of a housing bubble in the country.

FILE PHOTOS: Two people walk towards the entrance of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand which is located in the capital city of New Zealand, Wellington, 22 March 2016. REUTERS / Rebecca Howard

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand removed the loan-to-value ratio (LVR) restriction on mortgage loans until May earlier this year to spur credit flows and boost an economy hit by the coronavirus pandemic.

But historically low interest rates, no LVR limits, and chronic shortages have driven prices up in an already booming housing market.

New Zealand house prices have surged nearly 90% over the past decade, with some centers rising 20-30% in the last three years.

The RBNZ said it would consult on restoring LVR restrictions on high-risk loans from March.

“The situation in the lending market has improved and we are now observing rapid growth in high-risk investor lending,” Deputy Governor Geoff Bascand said in a statement.

Under the LVR cap, banks can only provide up to 20% of their housing mortgage loan to owners who pay less than 20% in deposits. Not more than 5% of such a loan can be provided to investors with deposits of less than 30%.

The RBNZ also said on Wednesday that it had postponed the start of increasing bank capital requirements until 2022. Increasing the prudential capital buffer will not start until July 2022.

Westpac Bank said the measures were designed to suppress housing lending and support business lending.

“LVRs on property investors may dampen the heat of the housing market,” said Chief Economist Dominick Stephens.

“Meanwhile, the capital requirement will be a brake, especially for business loans. Therefore, delaying their introduction in favor of business loans. “

The RBNZ also announced that the dividend payout restrictions will be maintained until March 31, 2021, or later if needed.

The RBNZ is widely expected to hold interest rates at 0.25% at its meeting on Wednesday, while introducing new monetary policy tools to push borrowing costs for lenders lower.

Reporting by Praveen Menon and Shashwat Awasthi; Edited by Shailesh Kuber, Jonathan Oatis and Sonya Hepinstall

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New Zealand’s central bank will review restrictions on mortgage lending, delaying the increase in bank capital | Instant News


WELLINGTON (Reuters) – New Zealand’s Central Bank said on Wednesday that it will consult next month on whether to reimpose limits on the number of “high-risk loans” banks can make, amid growing fears of a housing bubble in the country.

FILE PHOTOS: Two people walk towards the entrance of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand which is located in the capital city of New Zealand, Wellington, 22 March 2016. REUTERS / Rebecca Howard

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand removed the loan-to-value ratio (LVR) restriction on mortgage loans until May earlier this year to spur credit flows and boost an economy hit by the coronavirus pandemic.

But historically low interest rates, no LVR limits, and chronic shortages have driven prices up in an already booming housing market.

New Zealand house prices have surged nearly 90% over the past decade, with some centers rising 20-30% in the last three years.

The RBNZ said it would consult on restoring LVR restrictions on high-risk loans from March.

“The situation in the lending market has improved and we are now observing rapid growth in high-risk investor lending,” Deputy Governor Geoff Bascand said in a statement.

Under the LVR cap, banks can only provide up to 20% of their housing mortgage loan to owners who pay less than 20% in deposits. Not more than 5% of such a loan can be provided to investors with deposits of less than 30%.

The RBNZ also said on Wednesday that it had postponed the start of increasing bank capital requirements until 2022. Increasing the prudential capital buffer will not start until July 2022.

Westpac Bank said the measures were designed to suppress housing lending and support business lending.

“LVRs on property investors may dampen the heat of the housing market,” said Chief Economist Dominick Stephens.

“Meanwhile, the capital requirement will be a brake, especially for business loans. Therefore, delaying their introduction in favor of business loans. “

The RBNZ also announced that the dividend payout restrictions will be maintained until March 31, 2021, or later if needed.

The RBNZ is widely expected to hold interest rates at 0.25% at its meeting on Wednesday, while introducing new monetary policy tools to push borrowing costs for lenders lower.

Reporting by Praveen Menon and Shashwat Awasthi; Edited by Shailesh Kuber, Jonathan Oatis and Sonya Hepinstall

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