The government was encouraged to use the following 2 months to do intensive training for a possible second wave COVID-19 this winter.
And report of the Academy of medical Sciences (AMC) describes the simulation of a reasonable worst-case scenario, which could see as many as 119,000 of excess deaths at the hospital between September and June 2021 (95% confidence level, 24,500 – 251,000).
A figure that does not include deaths in nursing homes, suggests that the transfer rate (value of R) will increase to 1.7 from September this year, which is slightly more than half of the original level, the transfer took place in early March, 2020.
The authors of the report Preparing for a difficult winter 2020/21note that they do not predict, but warned that a violation within the NHS the first wave COVID-19, availability of patients in need of treatment, and the likelihood of a flu epidemic, are a serious threat to public health.
“The peak of coronavirus in winter may be more severe than the one we have just been through,” said Professor Stephen Holgate, a respiratory specialist from the University hospital of Southampton NHS trust, which led the team.
Preparing for ‘challenging winter’
AMS assembled 37 experts in response to the request of sir Patrick Vallance, government chief scientific adviser, the model expectations for a difficult winter.
Under the scenario, the infection could be expected to rise gradually with a peak in hospitalizations and deaths, the figures for the first waves occurring in January and February next year and coincided with the period of peak demand for NHS services.
“We are now experiencing a period of relative calm and we have the opportunity to prepare for this scenario,” Professor Holgate-he said at a briefing convened by the science Media Centre.
Less serious scenarios of the epidemic when the level of P was 1.1 or 1.5 from September to July 2021 is available in the Appendix of the report.
The ratio P 1.1 may cause 1300 deaths (95% confidence level, 200 – 14,000), and the ratio R of 1.5 can lead to 74,800 excess deaths (95% confidence level, 2700 – 175,000).
Prof Azra Ghani, Department of infectious diseases and epidemiology Imperial College London and co-author of the report, said: “Some of those us States where at the present time, we see increases in cases of infection currently have estimates of the reproduction number in the range from 1.1 to 1.4”, and if translated into UK, which means “health service will continue to be stretched”.
She noted that “if the infection did start to grow, and we began to see more cases, we expect that the government will take action”.
However, the modeling does not account for the recent positive tests dexamethasonethat suggested that it could significantly reduce mortality from COVID-19.
The report calls for the adoption of several measures to save lives this winter, and to prevent the health system from overload, including:
Minimization of transmission of coronavirus in society, public information campaign, launched in the autumn
The reorganization of health and social care employees and facilities to provide separate COVID-19 and COVID-19-free zones to minimize nosocomial infection
Ensuring adequate testing and personal protective equipment (PPE)
The establishment of a comprehensive, near real-time, wide layers of the population, control system COVID-19 levels
Protection from the worst effects of the flu with a concerted effort at vaccination
“We have no vaccine yet for the coronavirus, but we have one for flu“said Professor Holgate. “And we have to help as much as possible, and as many health professionals and medical professionals as a possible vulnerable people to get flu vaccine”.
He said stretching, test and track programs would be absolutely necessary “because there will be many more people with infections that can actually resembles, in some respects, coronavirus infection, and we have to suffer those who have an actual coronavirus, the influenza and other respiratory viruses”.
The Academy also commissioned Ipsos Mori to run online seminars with the public, people who were warned to “shield”, and those from black, Asian and minority ethnic, to understand how they think and feel about the issues that are expected this winter.
Revealed the limited level of understanding about what winter can mean from the point of view of the Renaissance COVID-19 and the lack of understanding that increased risk may extend to the end of March next year.
“We are in favour of a strong information campaign,” said Ann Johnson, a Professor of epidemiology of infectious diseases at University College London, Vice President of AMS. “Everyone should understand that COVID-19 went nowhere. And so, everyone can help to reduce the transmission of social distancing, wearing the face as a social norm, good respiratory and hand hygiene, and appropriate levels of heating and ventilation in our homes.”
Commenting on the report, Dr Simon Clark, Vice President for policy at the Royal College of paediatrics and child health, said: “even without the second peak, the recovery of lost capacity and working out a huge number of cancelled procedures is a huge problem. To go down this road for the second time in 12 months would be a disaster for children and families.
“We know a lot more about what we face than we did at the beginning of the first wave. It is very important that we use during the summer months to strengthen our services so that we can cope better.
“This will probably be a Winter unlike any in recent memory. Commitment to employees the NHS will not be enough. NHS needs extra funding, additional capacity, and a protection plan is not COVID specialized services”.