Our diets and agricultural production around the world are so carbon-intensive that emissions from the global food system alone are enough to make Paris’ climate goals unattainable, even if all other major sources of emissions are shut down, research has shown.

Agriculture and food accounts for about a third of current global greenhouse gas production. The world food system produced about 16 billion tonnes per year of CO2 from 2012 to 2017.

While emissions from some other carbon-intensive sectors, such as energy generation, have slowed as clean technology is more widely used, agriculture has received less attention from policymakers. But if emissions from food production continue at current trends, they will increase to 1,356 gigatons cumulatively by the end of this century, according to a study in the journal Science.

That alone is enough to heat the world by over 1.5C by the 2060s, and maybe around 2C by the end of the century. Under the Paris agreement, countries are bound to withstand temperature increases of no more than 2C above pre-industrial levels, with aspirations of up to a 1.5C limit.

Michael Clark, researcher at the Oxford Martin school and lead author of the study, said: “There needs to be more focus and more effort to reduce emissions from the food system. Greenhouse gas emissions food systems have increased due to a combination of dietary changes – more food in general, with a greater proportion of food derived from animal source foods – population size, and how food is produced. “

Deforestation and land conversion from peatlands, wetlands and other natural habitats are major contributors to the climate crisis. Another major source of emissions from food production is artificial fertilizer; methane from livestock; methane from rice in paddy fields; and manure.

Food waste also causes excess greenhouse gas emissions: halving food waste will result in emissions in the carbon budget for 2C. More efficient agriculture, including better practices such as targeted fertilizer use, and higher yielding agroecological agriculture, will also occur help reduce overall emissions.

If emissions from food production are to be cut to safe levels, diets in rich countries also likely to have to change. “These countries are primarily middle or high income countries where the dietary intake and consumption of meat, milk and eggs are far above average. [health] recommendations, ”Clark said, citing the UK, US, Australia, Europe, Brazil and Argentina, and countries like China where meat consumption is high and increasing.

Such a change will beneficial to public health and help solve the obesity crisis that lurks many wealthy societies. “Diets need to shift to reduce overall dietary content, so that calorie intake corresponds to healthier amounts, and less meat, milk and eggs, so that consumption of these foods is in line with dietary recommendations,” Clark said.

People don’t have to do it adopt a vegan diet, as some have asked, but reduce consumption of high-carbon foods large quantities of unhealthy meat, such as meat and dairy products.

If that is achieved, poor countries can better feed their populations, and can increase their consumption of animal products without depleting the global carbon budget. Clark said the study shows clearly that all of the world’s growing population can be fed a healthy diet while meeting the Paris goals, as long as concerted action is taken to reform global food production systems.

The paper does not detail policy improvements that may be needed, but there are growing calls from campaigners and health professionals for reform. Earlier this week, health professionals in the UK calling for a tax on meat to help solve the climate crisis and improve health.

Clark told the Guardian: “Taxes may be part of the solution, but they are not the only solution. If a food tax to reduce emissions is implemented, we need to make sure that it is not regressive and does not have a large negative impact on the most disadvantaged people. pay taxes. “

Joeri Rogelj, research director at the Grantham Institute, Imperial College London, who was not involved in the research, said the paper underlined the need for deep emission reductions from all sectors of the economy. “No sector has passed,” he said. “The sharp reduction in global CO2 emissions to net zero by mid-century needs to be accompanied by massive reductions in non-CO2 greenhouse gases such as methane and nitrous oxide. We are very close to 1.5C and future emissions from each and every sector will have a strong impact on where we end up in terms of global warming. “