ROCKFORD, Ill. (WIFR) – We’ve had little more than tiny tastes of winter so far, the brief flurries of snow on Sunday night, but another example. Overall, temperatures have remained mild and snow is hard to find. To date, the Rockford metro has seen less than three inches of snow, and we have a snow deficit of over nine inches. However, there are growing indications that we will be reducing the deficit as a dynamic storm system targets the region from the end of the day on Tuesday. At this early stage, the storm doesn’t look likely to be a successful snowmaker here, although the likelihood is quite high that shovels will be needed. Here’s what we know about the storm as of Sunday night. All indications continue to suggest that the precipitation will start here Tuesday afternoon and start as snow. Several hours of snow are likely until Tuesday evening, with accumulations appearing to be a very good bet. This is, without a doubt, the most certain part of the forecast table. The impact timing for our next winter weather event will be late Tuesday in the first half of Wednesday. Snow will likely be the first form of precipitation (Mark Henderson, WIFR) As the evening progresses, however, we will start to see a nose of warmer air rising northward. This will likely be enough to melt the snowflakes as they descend into the atmosphere and turn them into raindrops. The problem here is that the temperatures at ground level will likely still be below zero. As a result, the area will likely be affected by a period of freezing rain and snow covered roads will then become icy. This storm will not be a fully snow covered event. Instead, there will be periods of freezing rain, rain and even sleet. (Mark Henderson, WIFR) The big question is how long will this ice age last. Unfortunately, there is no answer to this question yet. Gradually, the warmer surface air will work in our area, and our ground-level temperatures will eventually return to above freezing, thus changing freezing rain to just rain. Just when this happens, that’s the big question. Our current thinking is that this should happen somewhere between 5 a.m. and 9 a.m. Wednesday morning. If that happened sooner, we would have less ice buildup. However, if we stay in the form of freezing rain beyond 9 a.m., the ice accumulations could be quite significant! While we are likely to see several hours of snowfall, the heaviest accumulations will be found over parts of Wisconsin, Minnesota and northern Iowa where there will not be periods of mixed precipitation (Mark Henderson, WIFR) Precipitation is likely to end around noon or shortly after noon Wednesday, and calmer weather is expected to last for at least the next 24 hours. some snow accumulation, maybe a handful of inches in places. In addition, there could be a period of freezing weather, which could have significant impacts on travel. downward, especially given a temperature profile that favors multiple different forms of precipitation. I think it’s safe to say we’ll almost certainly have some sticky snow and there’s a decent to likely chance that there will be a handful of inches. If we stay in the snow longer on Tuesday night, it may be a snowblower system for some, especially north of Rockford. However, it might take longer at this point. What we can say with great certainty is that there will be impacts on travel over a period of several hours. Tuesday evening’s ride appears to be affected by the first snowfall. Accumulations by then are unlikely to be significant, but as we all know too well, it doesn’t take a lot of snow to make our roads slippery. The worst travel time will be Tuesday through Wednesday morning. With accumulations increasing on Tuesday evening and the likely transition to freezing rain ahead, trips could become extremely dangerous after 10 p.m. and likely continue during the morning commute on Wednesday. Eventually, as the precipitation returns to rain on Wednesday morning, travel should start to improve. Current indications indicate that the worst time to travel will be Tuesday night through Wednesday morning. (Mark Henderson, WIFR) Quiet weather will follow the rest of Wednesday, Wednesday. night, and the opening party of New Year’s Eve. There are a few other signs appearing on our medium-range forecast models suggesting another potentially powerful storm rising in the Midwest later on New Years Eve and New Years Day. It’s far too early to sift through the fine details of this potential second storm system, though it’s fair to imagine that it is another system capable of producing hard-hitting winter conditions here or at proximity. Close monitoring of both storms is needed, and we will! Copyright 2020 WIFR. All rights reserved. .



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