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Dr. Rawiri Taonui | The Greatest Pandemic in History and the Race for Vaccines between Rich and Poor | Instant News


Dr. Rawiri Taonui | The Greatest Pandemic in History and the Race for Vaccines between Rich and Poor

The Greatest Pandemic in Human History

At the end of this year, Covid-19 will be the biggest pandemic in human history. Currently, the world total passes 60 million cases with 1.4 million deaths. On the current 7 day trend there will be 82 million cases and 1.8 million deaths before the end of the year.

The real figure is much higher. Earlier this year, The Economist summarized more than 100 populations testing serological surveys worldwide for antibodies to Covid-19. This identifies undetected positive cases, which facilitates estimation of shortages in official figures. The results show that the number of Covid-19 cases worldwide is 15x to 25x higher than the official figure.

A similar formula emerges when comparing the official rate with ‘excess death’, where the overall mortality rate is higher than in previous years. This suggests that the actual number of deaths worldwide is 3x to 5x higher than the official figure.

By applying a mid-range factor of 20x for total cases and 4x for total deaths, there are 1.2 billion Covid-19 cases and 5.6 million deaths worldwide.

With the official number of cases reaching 82 million by the end of the year, the true number will be 1.6 billion making the Covid-19 pandemic the largest in human history past 1.4 billion cases from the 2009/2010 Swine Flu Pandemic. With 1.7 million official deaths by year’s end, the true number will be closer to 7.2 million. This is less than the 1918 Spanish Flu, but Covid-19 will be the biggest pandemic in human history.

Acceleration

Pandemics are out of control in many parts of the world. Achieving 60 million today took 17 days, three days faster than the benchmark 50 million and twice as fast as it took to cross 40 million.

Daily cases are getting faster. From the beginning of the year it took 182 days to reach 200,000 new cases per day in June, 105 days to 400,000 cases per day in October and only 21 days to reach 600,000 cases per day in November.

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Daily mortality reaches new heights. Mortality peaked at 8,500 per day in April before dropping to 4,000 per day in May / June. During the mid-year peak in July / August, deaths hit 7,400 per day before falling again. Over the past few weeks, the peaks and troughs have merged into an upward trajectory of several notes, one every four or five days this month.

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Geographical Area

Lack of trans-regional cohesion and coordination between neighboring countries in Europe, and states and counties in the United States, is a key driver of the rise of Covid-19. Different jurisdictions apply different policies and regimes at different times without overall coordination. Some limit travel, others are more open; some airport arrival tests, most not; some require mandatory managed isolation, others require self-isolation. Disobedience, resistance often calls the name ‘freedom’ which is often accompanied by conspiracy theories and Covid-19 fatigue is the second main factor, especially in Western countries.

The result is uncoordinated chaos. It took Europe 208 days to record the first 5 million cases and only 33 days to record the second 5 million cases. The US now has more than 11 million cases and reports 150,000+ new cases and 2,000 deaths per day.

Compliance was higher in Asian countries such as China, Taiwan, and Vietnam where responses were among the strongest in the world and where cases per million of population were lowest.

Driven by inequality, poverty, fragile health infrastructure and a weak contact tracing regime, South America accounts for 30% of all daily deaths.

The numbers are much lower in Africa, partly because there is less travel to and from scattered Western countries, and the demographic average is much younger than Europe. However, concerns remain that the small number of cases reflects poor health, including a lack of testing capacity.

Travel, Travel, Tourism and Seasonal Worker Risks

Opening up international travel to stimulate the economy through tourism, holidays, a multi-country bubble or bringing workers to seasonal jobs has been the third catastrophic factor driving the new boom.

During the summer in the north, Britain allowed people to vacation in Spain and France which led to surges in all three countries.

Slovenia imposed its first lockdown two weeks before New Zealand and took control of Covid-19 by the end of April. The number of cases in June was almost the same as New Zealand. Slovenia then opened its borders. Currently, they have 67,000 cases and more than 1,100 deaths.

Slovakia closed their borders earlier than New Zealand and was the first European country to adopt the mandatory wearing of masks. In May, the number of cases was the same as New Zealand. Slovakia opens its borders. Currently, they have 97,500 cases and more than 700 deaths.

After the late March lockdown, Tahiti eliminated Covid-19 in eastern French Polynesia. In July, the border reopened to stimulate tourism, there are currently 12,000 cases, mainly among indigenous peoples.

As of April, Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia also have similar case numbers to New Zealand. At the end of May, they opened the 3-country Baltic travel bubble. The Baltic countries now have 73,000 cases and 2,000 deaths combined.

Culture

Data on the Covid-19 situation from the world’s indigenous peoples is very scarce. We know many who suffer in parts of Latin America, Asia and Africa where health support is weak or has been withheld, such as the Brazilian Amazon. Covid-19 also took a terrible toll in which it entered indigenous territories through workers in energy, mining and deforestation in remote areas such as the Amazon, Siberia, and parts of Asia.

Pressure from the rise of Covid-19 is also biting into Pacific islands that were previously virus-free. The Solomon Islands and Marshall Islands recorded their first Covid-19 infections last month, neighboring Vanuatu reported their first cases two weeks ago, and last week Samoa’s first. As a result, Nauru, Tonga, Kiribati, Micronesia, Palau and Tuvalu are the only countries left that have not reported cases of Covid-19.

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The situation of indigenous peoples in the former British colony is mixed. Those living in or close to European urban centers, for example, in Manitoba Canada and the Navajo Nations in the US, have higher rates of infection and death.

Those living in remote areas, autonomous regions and asylum areas fared better, especially where they could restrict access to their land with the support of their government. In Canada, the current infection rate for First Nations living in nature reserves is half that for the general population, and in Australia there are very few cases in remote communities.

Those whose communities have shown unusually strong community responses also fared well. Māori accounts for 9% of cases in New Zealand, half of the demographic.

Racial discrimination

The combination of comorbidities, poverty, poor health provision, poor housing and low-wage employment in vulnerable employment has also created racial differences. In the UK, all non-whites are more likely to catch and die from Covid-19 than whites. In the United States, infection and death rates are higher for African-Americans and Hispanics than for whites, and even higher for Pacific Island communities.

The Race to Get Vaccines

One thing for sure is that universal vaccinations around the world are essential to beat Covid-19. There are 140 vaccine projects of which 50 are currently working through clinical trials on human subjects: Phase-1 tens of subjects, Phase-2 hundreds of subjects, and Phase-3 thousands, before moving to approval.

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China and Russia have approved six vaccines between them. The West has expressed concern about the safety of these projects. However, one of China’s vaccines, Sinopharm, has completed its Phase-3 trials on 60,000 people in 10 countries and 56,000 nationals traveling abroad with a success rate of 94.5%. As of this month, Sinopharm has now managed for 1 million people.

Russia has also been giving their vaccine for several weeks, so far no problems have been reported. Yesterday, Russia’s Sputnik V vaccine reported 91.4% effectiveness of its second Phase-3 trial of more than 18,000 people and will test 40,000 people.

In the West, 12 projects are in Phase-3. Seven are the most advanced: the Pfizer-BioNTech project, Moderna, AstraZeneca-Oxford University, Novavax, Sanofi-GlaxoSmithKline (Sanofi-GSK), Johnson & Jonson, and Medicago

Last week Pfizer-BioNTech announced it had completed two human trials on 30,000 and 43,000 subjects with success rates of 95%. Moderna followed soon, announcing that their vaccine had completed trials with 94.5% effectiveness. The AstraZeneca-Oxford University project is expected to announce its data soon.

Awaiting final approval, there are wide expectations that the UK, Germany and the United States may begin distribution in the second week of December.

Some of the vaccines that have come online are positive. This is the best chance to stop the pandemic. We also need options because there is no clear picture of whether all vaccines work, are suitable for people of all ages, how many will need two shots, how long immunity will last and whether annual flu-like boosters will be needed.

The race between the Rich and the Poor

The main problem with vaccines in successful vaccine search and distribution is the race between rich and poor countries. For a vaccine to be effective, coverage must be universal.

Earlier this year, GAVI (the Vaccine Alliance), a partnership between WHO, UNICEF, the World Bank and the Gates Foundation, established the COVAX program to deliver the Covid-19 vaccine to poor countries. Using funds from rich countries, COVAX has secured approximately 500 million doses from various projects. While progressive, it will not provide full coverage for developing countries.

A typical scenario is that countries that have made a donation to COVAX then spend more on the vaccine, and before that, which means they would expect first access to poorer countries. For example, the European Union donated $ 200 million to COVAX while the UK and Germany each purchased $ 1 billion worth of vaccines.

Earlier this year, the United States, by far the most aggressive when it comes to vaccine pre-purchases, launched Operation Warp Speed, a $ 10 billion multi-agency commitment to identify and secure at least 100 million vaccines from each of the seven at most. promising projects with 400 to 500 million more options if needed.

Likewise, Canada has purchased more than 400 million vaccines from seven major projects. Australia has secured 140 million doses of vaccine from three major projects and the local CSL / University of Queensland vaccine.

Wealthy Western countries have ordered and / or stockpiled more than 4 billion doses of vaccine with a choice of several hundred million more. With a cap on production capacity of between 0.5 and 1.5 billion doses of each vaccine in its first year, 2021 is emerging as a race with the rich winning the best vaccines and more of them, and the poor receiving less good vaccines. . of them, and at the mercy of the West.

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Copyright © 2020, UMA Broadcasting Ltd: www.waateanews.com

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Food City to add stores in Winchester | Instant News


Food City is expanding to Franklin County with a new supermarket now under construction in Winchester, Tennessee.

The 54,200-square-foot supermarket that forms at the intersection of Highway Cowan and Halfmoon Road in Winchester is expected to open early next summer and will include a pharmacy, gas station, Starbucks cafe, and an in-store bakery and delicacy.

“We look forward to building state-of-the-art supermarkets that will create quality jobs and tax revenue for residents of Winchester and Franklin County,” said Steven C. Smith, president and CEO of Food City, in a breakthrough ceremony for the new store last week.

The new location will feature several award-winning energy-saving concepts, from energy-efficient glass cooling doors, LED parking lights and signs to motion sensors and 100% LED interior lighting, as well as open rafters ceiling designs. Inside the new Food City, the shop will include a hot food bar with fancy soup and salad bars as well as a pizza oven with a stone fireplace for making fresh food for the 38-seat cafe built with a fireplace.

Smith said a full-service meat and seafood department with an in-house butcher will offer pre-marinated and seasoned oven-ready products, plus a full selection of natural, high-quality meats, including Certified Angus Beef and fresh sushi.

“Grocery store multiplication, frozen food and production departments will go beyond normal rates with a great selection of gourmet, international and specialty items,” said Food City spokesman Tammy Baumgardner.

The Food City Flower Boutique will be run by a designer seven days a week and offer fresh cut flower bouquets, bouquets, gift items and more. A fast checkout service will be provided by six traditional check-out lines and eight self-check-outs.

The store will also include a Food City Pharmacy, equipped with a drive-thru and consulting room for discussing patient prescription needs and arranging immunizations, a Food City Gas N ‘Go fuel center, a Starbucks cafe, offering a wide variety of hot and cold mixtures. coffee and drinks and beer tasting. The new shop will also offer a GoCart roadside pick-up service.

Headquartered in Abingdon, Virginia, Food City’s parent company, K-VA-T Food Stores, operates 134 retail outlets throughout southeastern Kentucky, southwest Virginia, East Tennessee, northern Georgia and soon in Albertville, Alabama.

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Chattanooga expects hotel and tourist traffic as Thanksgiving travel outlook affected by worsening pandemic | Instant News


The four-day Thanksgiving weekend is typically the busiest holiday of the year at the Chattanooga Metro Airport, with a busy Wednesday as people take to the skies and a “gangbuster” Sunday upon their return, Airport CEO Terry Hart said. But there’s nothing typical about 2020. “My instinct is that we’ll see half as many people as we’ve seen in the past two years,” Hart said Thursday, the same day as the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in the United States has issued grim guidelines discouraging travel. in the face of a worsening pandemic. “Everything seems to be down, and I’m just not sure some people are going to cancel and not leave.” (READ MORE: ‘COVID fatigue’, impending flu season poses challenges as coronavirus pandemic continues in Chattanooga area) Hiren Desai, CEO of 3H Group Hotels, said his properties The big markets weren’t expecting much business over the long holiday weekend, but its hotels in drive-in markets such as Chattanooga and Knoxville are in full swing. “We’re full, but at a lower rate,” said Desai, whose portfolio includes 19 hotels, including five in the Chattanooga market. “Weekends keep us going, like many hotels across the country.” (READ MORE: Labor Day weekend trips driven by road trips as people stay closer to home as COVID-19 pandemic persists) Airlines have also cut fares, as well as capacity, because they’ve reduced the number of flights they do, Hart says. For travelers on the road, gasoline is cheaper than it has been since 2016, but the number of travelers will drop significantly further, GasBuddy, a travel and navigation app, predicted. In a statement on its annual Thanksgiving 2020 travel survey, GasBuddy reported that 35% of Americans will take to the roads this year, a decrease from 65% last year. AAA predicts that 50 million people will take a car trip over Thanksgiving weekend – about 4% less than last year – as it predicts that air travel will be cut by almost half, to about 2 ,4 million. In Tennessee, 1.2 million travelers are expected to take state roads, said Jennifer Flynn, spokesperson for the Tennessee Department of Transportation. 2020 Thanksgiving Holiday Travelers Automobile2020: 47.8M2019: 49.9M Change: -4.3% Air2020: 2.4M2019: 4.58M Change: -47.5% Other (bus, train, cruise) 2020: 353,0002019: 1.5M : -76.2% Source: AAA “However, these numbers could be even lower as Americans monitor the public health landscape, including the increase in the number of positive COVID-19 cases, the renewal of restrictions on quarantine and travel health advisories from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, “she said. The US Travel Association held a virtual press conference on Thursday in which Dr. Michael Parkinson described the COVID pandemic -19 as “unprecedented, uncontrolled and dangerous.” “If you are traveling you need to know something about your destination,” Parkinson said, citing the prevalence of the disease in the community, local mask requirements and social distancing guidelines among important factors to know. Hamilton County Mayor Jim Coppinger on Thursday extended a county-wide mask term in January, citing the need for continued vigilance as the coronavirus spreads. Photo gallery Thanksgiving travel outlook affected by worsening pandemic, though Chattanooga expects some hotel and tourist traffic See 8 photos (READ MORE: Hamilton County Mayor extends tenure again mask amid COVID-19) Local attractions have taken precautions including limiting capacity, ahead of time, improved cleaning and requiring masks, said Barry White, CEO of Chattanooga Tourism Co. “They made a great job with precautions and safety measures, ”he said, adding that some attractions had already sold out some long holiday weekend slots. “We continue to communicate to encourage safety, encourage physical distance, wear a mask, especially with the recent outbreak, not only in Tennessee but across the country.” The long weekend also provides a good opportunity to get out, one of the safest activities available during the pandemic, White said. “Even if it’s just to get out and hike, walk, we have a beautiful city, beautiful parks, and now is a great time to be outside and enjoy your city, ”he said. Contact Mary Fortune at [email protected] Follow her on Twitter at @maryfortune. .



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No fans are allowed at UTC basketball games until December | Instant News


The staff file photo / UTC basketball game at the McKenzie Arena will not be attended by fans in November and December, the school announced Thursday.

The University of Tennessee at Chattanooga will not allow fans at home basketball games until the end of the calendar year due to “challenges and safety concerns caused by the COVID-19 pandemic,” according to a UTC release.

The decision, announced Thursday, will affect seven games at the McKenzie Arena: four for the men’s team – season opener versus Bellarmine (November 25), plus Northern Kentucky (November 28), UNC Asheville (December 16) and Southern Conference opener against Furman (December 30) – and three for the women’s team – season opener versus the University of Alabama at Birmingham (6 December), plus Vanderbilt (December 13) and Eastern Kentucky (December 18).

The women’s team has already canceled two matches due to COVID-19 concerns – November 25 in the State of Tennessee and November 29 at home against Tennessee Tech – and the men’s team had December 16 against Cumberland, the NAIA program from the Nashville area, canceled for COVID -19 related reasons.

“We have a very passionate and supportive fan base, and I hate not giving them a chance to see our student athletes perform live,” said UTC athletics director Mark Wharton in a release. “However, after consulting with the university medical staff and the executive leadership team, we feel that for the health and safety of everyone involved, this is the best decision. We will re-evaluate this before the start of the match in January and communicate any changes in plans at the time. that. “

All games will be broadcast on ESPN Plus / ESPN3, with radio broadcasts on the Moc Sports Network on WFLI 97.7 / 1070 AM and on GoMocs.com.

Fans who purchase tickets for the November and December home games will be contacted by UTC ticketing office staff with the option to receive a full refund or ticket for the next match or convert the purchase into a contribution to the Mocs Fly Together Fund.

Contact Gene Henley at [email protected]. Follow him on Twitter @bayu_joo.

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Most children catch COVID-19 outside of school, German research finds | Corona virus | Instant News


BERLIN, November 19 (Reuters) – Children in the German city of Hamburg are four times more likely to catch the coronavirus during private gatherings than at school, an analysis of infection cases between August and October shows.

Hamburg school authorities said 78% of the 372 children infected with the virus between summer and fall holidays contracted the virus outside of school, with children under 12 years old only half as likely to become infected as older ones.

It said many schools only registered one infection in a cohort of the year within 10 days, suggesting that it is unlikely that affected students will pass it on to classmates. Most children become infected at home, at parties, or other private gatherings.

Of the 472 schools in Hamburg, 171 recorded infections, but only 23 had multiple infections.

As coronavirus infections spike across Europe again, Germany imposed a month-long “light lock” on November 2, closing bars and restaurants but keeping schools and shops open.

Germany’s federal states this week rejected Chancellor Angela Merkel’s offer to tighten regulations, including mandating wearing masks in schools, reducing class sizes and limiting social contact to one household or friend.

The head of the Robert Koch Institute for infectious diseases (RKI), Lothar Wieler, said as of Thursday there were around 475 outbreaks in schools and more than 100 in child care facilities.

Germany continues to do better than many of its European neighbors even as cases spiked in the second wave of the pandemic.

RKI data published on Thursday showed confirmed coronavirus cases in Germany had risen by 22,609, the biggest increase in six days, to a total of 855,916, while the number of deaths rose 251 to 13,370.

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