Well-known public health Institute United States argues that based on their modeling and prediction, Pakistan could avoid approximately 25,000 deaths due COVID-19 October 1, 2020, if he convinces all the citizens to wear masks during the release to the public.
According to research, COVID-19 cases and deaths is constantly increasing in Pakistan at the moment, however, the number of victims can be significantly reduced if the people of Pakistan to take precautions.
“Our modeling shows that if all Pakistanis to wear a mask when going out, how many of the 25,000 lives could be saved. I urge everyone to wear masks to save the lives and protect the economy,” said Dr. Ali Mokdad, senior lecturer and Director of strategy for public health in the Institute of metrics and evaluation of health (ima), University of Washington, during a conversation on Saturday.
In ima, the University of Washington has a long history of cooperation with Aga Khan University (AKU) and the government of Pakistan. Some Pakistani health officials, including epidemiologists and public health professionals have been trained in well-known Institute in Washington.
Dr. Mokdad, who also served in Pakistan, told the news by phone that his first projection for Pakistan, has predicted that a total of 42,188 people die of contagious disease in the country until 1 October.
“Pakistan is on the path,” – said the expert. “According to our simulation and estimated that there will be more than 42 000 deaths in Pakistan, if the security measures are not taken. But the hard locking, which the country adopted at the beginning of the flash is also not a solution. The only option left For Pakistanis is behavior change, which includes the mandatory use of masks while out of their homes, practicing social distancing and frequent hand washing”, he added.
Called on Pakistani authorities to promote the use of all types of masks, among the people, he said that if people cannot afford N-95 or surgical mask, he or she must use a hand cloth masks, adding that the aim was to cover the face to prevent the owner and others from Contracting the disease, which is transmitted by airborne droplets and aerosols.
“As an Islamic country, I’ve noticed that women in Pakistan covering their faces with pieces of cloth, and it can prevent them from spreading and infection of this disease. Otherwise, everyone should wear a mask in public places, especially around Eid-ul-Azha, when there will be great confusion in the Holy holiday with each other”, he added.
To a question, he said Pakistan adheres to a strict isolation at the beginning of the outbreak, which prevented the spread of the novel coronavirus to the General population and as a result of slow mortality in Pakistan. He, however, added that with ease in restrictions, the disease spread like wildfire, and for economic reasons the country can not afford another lockdown, similar to that which he performed at the beginning of the epidemic.
“Strict isolation would have serious consequences for Pakistan, as it would further exacerbate malnutrition and the problem of stunting among children. At the moment, the circulation of the virus among the population is widespread and the only option left for Pakistan is promoting the mandatory use of masks and other protection measures, including social distancing and frequent hand washing,” Dr. Mokdad explained.
In ima is forecast that the mortality rate in Pakistan will continue to grow and the wound to reach a peak in the near future. According to the study, the country is expected to record 1,430 daily deaths on 1 October. According to the forecast, the Punjab would record 916 deaths on October 1, and Sindh 254 deaths per day.
The forecast has predicted deaths from the virus if countries introduce measures of social distancing for six weeks at a time when the mortality rate reaches eight per one million people. “Pakistan is not predicted to reach this threshold until 1 October,” said Dr Mokdad.
According to the study, the number of deaths due COVID-19 in different regions of the country prior to 1 October will be 861 in Azad Jammu and Kashmir, 2,188 in Balochistan, 54 in Gilgit-Baltistan, 262 in Islamabad, 4,894 in the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, 9,098 in Sindh and in Punjab 24,830.
The forecast is based on the latest model the AVI and includes a system health data such as hospitalization, intensive care, emergency room and in need of artificial ventilation of lungs, and infections, deaths, and antibody Prevalence. Other factors included in the model testing on the population, mobility, per capita, the mandates of social distancing, use of masks, social contacts prices and seasonality, the AVI, – said the expert.
Dr. Sameen Siddiqi, Professor of medical Sciences Department Chairman of the Commission, endorsed the recommendations of the ima in order to reduce mortality from COVID-19. He stressed the need to wear masks, as this will significantly reduce the mortality rate in the country.
He also said that Eidul Azha was only a month and learning from the experience of Eidul Fitr, people should take precautions and the government needs to create awareness, to make sure that another surge in COVID-19, it doesn’t.