‘Show-cause’ to Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) and Awami National Party (ANP) by the Pakistan Democratic Movement (PDM) faction, led by the Pakistan Muslim League, PML-N and Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam (JUI-F) ), turned out to be the final nail in the coffin of a so-called alliance of 11 opposition parties that formed in September last year to topple Prime Minister Imran Khan.
The developments certainly put Prime Minister Imran Khan in the driving seat with almost no chance of an organized movement against him anytime soon unless he himself made too many mistakes and mistakes, which some believe Kaptan is quite capable of.
Divisions within the PDM have been on the cards for a long time and the two mainline opposition parties have had to share the blame, while the biggest loser in the seven-month political alliance is undoubtedly none other than Jamiat Ulema-e-Pakistan’s (JUI-F) Maulana Fazlur Rehman. .
Some of the PML-N party leaders I spoke to were surprised and believed that the decision was taken hastily. Instead, they said, Maulana should have summoned a PDM leadership meeting. The impact could come in the next two by-elections in Daska on April 10 and in Karachi on April 29.
The Awami National Party (ANP) has quit the PDM while the PPP Central Executive Committee will meet on April 11, and is ready to give a suitable reply to PML (N), the ‘show-cause’ architect or as PML leader Shahid Khakan Abbasi said the ‘letter explanation.’
In these circumstances, Imran Khan should consider himself fortunate to have an opposition like the PDM, which despite having a strong presence in the National Assembly, Senate, Punjab Assembly and government in Sindh, could hardly pose a challenge to him in the last two and a half. -year.
The approach adopted by the two parties since the Senate election seems very immature when they announce their planned ‘Long March’ on March 26.
Both parties have a history of ‘love and hate’, allowing someone like Imran.Khan to emerge as a third force in 2018. Both parties still have deep roots in their own Punjab and Sindh constituencies and are not coming across as bad as some might think. observer in 2018.
The PPP got more seats in Sindh while the PML-N vote bank generally remained intact even though former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif was disqualified against the backdrop of the 2016 Panama Papers leak.It still emerged as the single largest party in the Punjab Assembly and Imran Khan had no other choice but to formed a coalition with PML-Q even though he had deep doubts about Chaudhrys of Gujrat.
Some hidden power also played a role in bringing the two closer but until recently they had practically not spoken. Before the Senate election, Imran went to the Chaudhry House in Lahore to break the ice.
What happened in Balochistan before the general election and the way the PML-N was suddenly replaced by a new entity, the Balochistan Awami Party (BAP), raises serious questions and the alleged role played by former PPP President and Deputy Chairperson Asif Ali Zardari.
Both sides gave pillows to PTI to form a government both in Central and in Punjab. Second, if PML-N resolves its differences with PML-Q, they can block PTI’s entry into Punjab.
Imran Khan did not face many challenges from his political rivals despite the way NAB was used against PML-N and PPP because the opposition through a poor counter strategy provided assistance to Imran.
For example, if Sadiq Sanjrani should be grateful for not only getting him elected Chairman of the Senate two years ago, but also when the vote of no confidence was defeated thanks to 14 opposition senators. He maintained his position this time thanks to seven senators.
Only Asif Zardari knows why he chose Sanjrani over Raza Rabbani in 2018 when Sanjrani could easily be re-elected as Senate Chair in 2018.
Immediately after the 2018 general elections, Jamiat Ulama-e-Islam (JUI-F), who was practically removed from the KP by the PTI, wanted all opposition parties not to accept the results and had to launch a movement without taking the assembly oath. However, he could not convince either PML (N) or PPP.
The opposition received another setback when the PML-N and PPP withdrew after supporting Maulana’s own long march which reached Islamabad. Their leaders, including Shahbaz Sharif, did address the long march but kept their participation low.
This followed the surprise of Nawaz Sharif who left for London for ‘medical treatment’ amid reports of serious internal differences in government. Some sources said Imran was unhappy with the way he was allowed to leave.
So, when the PDM was formed and announced its plans to overthrow the government, there was not much enthusiasm even among the opposition. They held some impressive public gatherings in Punjab but were unable to draw large crowds to their crucial rally at Minar-e-Pakistan in Lahore.
Prior to Nawaz Sharif’s sudden attack in Lahore during the Gujranwala meeting raised doubts among the PPP about Mian Sahib and Maulana’s intentions because Maulana also adopted an aggressive tone.
The proposal to resign from the assembly before the March 26 ‘Long March’ was on the cards when PDM parties accepted the PPP proposal not to boycott the Senate and by-election elections. The move paid off and the PDM shocked PTI in both elections.
The PPP’s stance not to resign from the assembly has several justifications. Is it necessary to say harsh words from Asif Zardari? Probably not. At the same time, PML (N) and JUI took extreme positions and all this led to a practical share after the last meeting of the PDM leaders in Islamabad.
However, the PDM was still intact until the PPP ‘reversed course’ after Yusuf Raza Gilani and Maulana Ghafoor Haidri lost the election for Chairman and Deputy Chairman of the Senate. The fact remains that PML (N) maintains its commitments and only PPP is to blame for the way seven of the suspected senators voted for Gilani in such a way as to allow the controversial Chief Acting Syed Muzazafar Hussain Shah to reject this vote.
The PPP was morally and politically bound to allow PML (N) to have a place in the opposition for two reasons. One, they have committed. Second, Gilani was already against Sanjrani’s election.
The opposition is clearly divided now or if one can say there are two PDMs, one led by PPP and ANP while the other by PML (N) and JUI (F) The other five parties are BNP (Mengal), National Party (NP), Pakhtunkhawa Party Milli Awami (PKMAP) and PPP (Sherpao).
Unless the Prime Minister and his team make a grave mistake, PTI will complete his term and Imran Khan could go down in history as the first PM to remain in power for five years.
The authors are senior columnists and analysts at Geo, The News and Jang