Tag Archives: recession

Emerging Niches, Changing Trends: Travel Prospects in 2021 and Beyond | Instant News

The ubiquitous hand sanitizers, face masks, social distancing floor tags, nasal swabs and new customer service protocols were not part of the travel experience before the coronavirus pandemic. Nowadays, they are an integral part of the routine. But for how long? As the world slowly recovers from the massive collapses caused by the infectious disease and borders gradually begin to open, many expect travel to be different than it was before the pandemic. In recent months, many tour operators have significantly reduced their number of trips. Leisure travelers have moved significantly from international to domestic destinations. In Iran, the number of foreign travelers has dropped significantly since the virus first debuted, with the country registering just 74 international visits in the spring, which is traditionally a high season. The coronavirus epidemic has ruined more than 1.5 million jobs in the Islamic Republic’s travel sector, according to Tourism Minister Ali-Asghar Mounesan. “Many tourism insiders are now unemployed or staying at home.” Based on available data, Iranian tourism suffered a loss of 140 trillion rials (some $ 3.3 billion at the official rate of 42,000 rials) from the outbreak of the coronavirus pandemic until the end of Shahrivar ( September 21). In a post-coronavirus world, travelers should be much more aware of the new requirements. Travel marketers will need to be more innovative in crafting routes that avoid public transport and crowded tourist areas, as their clients will assume this more thoughtful approach to travel design. This way more distant destinations or niche travel sites are more likely to be put into service. From another perspective, it is evident that the travel and hospitality sectors need to be sustainable and bearable both for Mother Earth and for communities, as well as for tourism related businesses in general. The newly prescribed health measures will, of course, be of benefit to travelers and host communities, allowing tourism to resume operating safely and, therefore, generating economic benefits for those involved. In a post-COVID-19 world, travel agents of tour operators specializing in creating group tours may want to start thinking about how to balance their business to operate safely and successfully in this new world. . One option might be to switch completely from group travel to free independent travelers for those who are planning their trips and prefer to travel alone or in small groups. This is the opposite of mass tourists, who travel in large groups and buy pre-defined travel packages. Another choice may be to continue offering group travel, but only to people who already know, trust and interact with each other on a regular basis. With considerable uncertainty over travel safety, travel designers, looking for a way out of the recession, are expected to offer new niche destinations to potential travelers who continue to turn to the experts when it comes to planning their trips. trips. Mohammad Ali Vaqefi, vice president of the Iranian Association of Tour Operators, believes that sightseeing and travel would be transformed into a realm of luxury as observing health protocols increases travel costs. While no one knows exactly what will happen on the global travel scene, one thing is clear; we won’t be able to travel as freely as before. Government regulations, outstanding refunds, shifting policies, and health awareness tell us these “ unusual ” trends will continue into 2021 and beyond. AFM /.

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How Does the Australian Recession Affect Mortgage Rates and House Prices? | Instant News

The Australian housing market has exceeded industry expectations during 2020. Now the Australian economy has finally arrived emerged from the first recession in 30 yearsLandlords and private buyers alike wonder if now is the right time to invest in housing. Let’s assess fluctuating house prices, economic indicators and interest rates to see if property is a good investment in the current economic climate.

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Australian House Prices Fluctuate

Currently, house prices in Australia are on the rise. Although some analysts predict that the average house price in Australia will fall by up to 20% by 2020, house prices actually rose 0.8% in November due to the well-performing economy.

Although house prices fell during the first half of this year, analysts believe that house prices will rise to pre-pandemic levels in early 2021. This year, house prices in Sydney and Melbourne have returned to 2017 levels, while housing prices in Brisbane, Adelaide, Hobart and Canberra all hit record highs in November.

It’s important to note that how stable Australia emerges from recession is likely to have an impact on how house prices change in the coming months and years. As a result, because the economy remains unstable, property business owners such as landlords must always follow the development of the country’s economy as a whole before making investment decisions.

The importance of this strategy can be seen by looking ASX 200 chart index for 2020. This suggests that the broad performance of the Australian economy often reflects changes in house prices. For example, when house prices fell 3% between March and September, the Australian 200’s value also fell from highs above 7,000 in March to lows below 6,000. However, as house prices started to rebound in October and November, the Australian 200 index has also risen sharply from the 6,000 level in early October to above 6,600 at the end of November.

It is clear to see that the housing market is subject to the same pressures as the wider economy during volatile times. Having said that, a broader economic indicator such as Australia 200 can provide a helpful indicator of how the housing market is likely to perform in the coming months.

How Do Interest Rates Change?

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Another economic indicator that will influence investment decisions is fluctuating credit interest rates. After all, this year, the Australian mortgage market has been almost completely reshaped with the introduction of low interest rates. Historically, Australians used to prefer variable rate mortgages. However, the introduction of lower margin fixed rate loans means that landlords and homeowners are now looking for viable alternatives to variable deals.

In November, the Reserve Bank of Australia cut the official interest rate to 0.1%. While doing so, they also announced that they could not see this rate increase for at least three years. However, banks responded to this by cutting rates on fixed mortgages, this savings not being passed on to variable rate mortgage holders. Currently, fixed rate loans are available at around 1.9% in the country, while variable interest loans are available at around 2.6%. Result of, Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Philip Lowe said that everyone should “go and ask their bank for a better deal. If they don’t give you a better deal… move on to the bank that will ”.

These new low interest rates increase the attractiveness of property investment in two ways. First, low-interest loans make it easier for landlords and homeowners to diversify their portfolios and buy more homes. Second, they provide property owners with existing portfolios the opportunity to save significant amounts of money by changing deals or swapping providers.

In short, the Australian housing market is doing well at the moment. With house prices rising across the country and interest rates falling to record lows, now looks like a good time for landlords to expand their property portfolios. However, the country’s economic outlook remains volatile. As a result, property owners should not rely solely on industry forecasts; especially as expert predictions of a 20% drop in property prices for 2020 proved inaccurate. Landlords will have to trace Australia’s wider economy to see how the country emerges from recession, as this could have a huge impact on house prices in 2021 and beyond.

How Does the Australian Recession Affect Mortgage Rates and House Prices?

the mortgage business

Last Updated: December 21, 2020

Published: 30 December 2020


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Britain is experiencing its worst recession in 300 years as it grapples with a mutated COVID-19 virus | Instant News

The world makes adjustments after a new strains of the coronavirus, spreading across Britain and beyond as the country’s government says it has entered its worst recession in 300 years.

Christmas in London was effectively canceled, many residents felt. The city’s famous Oxford Street, which is usually the busiest shopping strip in all of Europe, is very quiet, reports Roxana Saberi of CBS News, after the mutated COVID-19 virus put the country on tight lockdown.

British authorities say the new virus is even more contagious, and is prohibited from mixing between households – including during holidays.

Queen Elizabeth conveys its traditional Christmas Day message while socially distant inside Windsor Castle, reassuring the British that “even on the darkest of nights there is hope at a new dawn.”

However, for the thousands of truck drivers stranded by the side of the road when France closed its border to Britain, frustration and anger ensued.

The country’s struggle comes as the number of new infections worldwide approaches 80 million, resulting in 1.7 million deaths.

At the Vatican, Pope Francis gives Christmas Day blessings to empty St. Peter’s Square which is usually filled with thousands of worshipers.

The Catholic leader instead addressed a small group that was socially distant, calling for international cooperation by governments and businesses to ensure everyone has access to the COVID-19 vaccine, especially the most vulnerable and needy.

“We cannot build walls,” said the pope. “We are all in the same boat.”

© 2020 CBS Interactive Inc. All Rights Reserved.


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Why are Australians spending more than ever despite COVID, recession | Instant News

Australia now reminds me of a video of a rapper from MTV in 2015. We waste money as if it were nothing. It was an orgiastic explosion of hedonistic materialism that would embarrass Lil Wayne.

Rolls Royces? We want it. Seven Rolls Royce sold in November 2020, compared to none in the same month last year. Porsche 911s, Bentley Coupes, and Mercedes AMGs all rolled out in higher numbers compared to November 2019.

We’ve got cash and we’re not afraid of making it rain.

As the following chart shows, each state is spending significantly more money than it was in 2019. At least 10 percent more, and up to nearly 20 percent more on Queensland, NT, South Australia and Tasmania.

RELATED: Bad news for Australian house prices

What do we buy more? Something. If you split expenses between goods and services, the data shows we are focused on goods. Australians today fill our homes with items purchased online. In six months it can be a busy time in the stores when we all do some massive cleaning!

Of course, the under-spending on services is partly due to Victoria, where services have been closed for most of the year. Other countries appear to be spending much of the year in restaurants, as the next graph shows. Especially WA – since June, Western Australians have been enjoying a first-class pandemic brimming with delicious food.

RELATED: Best $ 56 billion Australia has ever wasted

At Perth’s old Royal Hotel – once a backpacker hostel – there is now a restaurant called Fleur. Fleur has a caviar menu, and the prices are staggering. One five-gram bulge of Uruguay sturgeon on top of a small pancake costs $ 30.If five grams isn’t enough, you can get a 100 gram can of the same Uruguay caviar for $ 400.

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A restaurant like that shouldn’t survive if it opens in a recession. No caviar restaurant has reported survivors of the Great Depression, for example. People eat sawdust.

But this is not a normal recession and Fleur appears to be thriving. After the hard times of March and April, it turns out that it’s time to become a restaurant owner in Perth.

Australian consumer sentiment is at a ten-year high, as measured by the Westpac / Melbourne Institute Index. Highest in ten years.

A reminder: pandemics still kill thousands of people every day around the world and vaccines are not even approved, let alone used. This recovery in Australian optimism was unexpected, complete and even slightly obscene.


Global ratings agency Fitch sent me an email this week saying that among all the housing markets it tracks around the world, “we expect Australia to see some of the strongest price increases”.

It was as if the Australians were going to spend a lot of money and not counting housing.

Home prices are expected to increase by 3-5% by 2021 according to Fitch. That’s a big deal for a country with slow population growth and high unemployment. Of course, ANZ considers this forecast to be very low. They expect a 9 percent increase in house prices next year.


Why do we spend so much? Are we running our bank accounts dry? Australia’s savings were enormous. As the next graph shows, we’re stacking our bank accounts high.

That’s right, we maximize spending and save at the same time.

We can do both because our revenue rages on with JobKeeper and JobSeeker.

When governments spend billions and billions of dollars, it ends up in our hot little hands and changes our lives. That expense has drawn some criticism, but not from me. That is one of the main reasons we end 2020 optimistically not pessimistic, rich not poor.


There are many lessons here but the simplest one for governments is probably the fact that they can actually generate wealth very simply – by putting more money into people’s hands.

This is one of the basic principles of Keynesianism – the problem of government spending. The Australian Government is not completely stupid – I hope they see a correlation between consumer confidence and the fact that they are now leading the way in polls. Let’s not forget that Prime Minister Scott Morrison started the year on the toilet after tackling wildfires.

It is safe to predict the government will continue to spend at a strong rate, leaving behind debt and deficit rhetoric. Which would be the right thing to do as long as the unemployment rate is too high.

The only question is whether they can forget about it, and stop the high spending if we return to a strong labor market.

Jason Murphy is an economist. | @jasemury. He is the author of the book Incentivology.


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Brazil posted the fastest inflation for September in 17 years – business news | Instant News

Brazilian consumer inflation posted the fastest pace for September since 2003 as food and fuel prices rose, supporting the central bank’s case to keep interest rates unchanged later this month.

The benchmark IPCA index rose 0.64% from August, above the median estimate of 0.54% in a Bloomberg survey of economists. Annual inflation increased to 3.14%, below this year’s target of 4%, the national statistics agency reported on Friday.

Below-target inflation has allowed the central bank to signal its intention to keep interest rates at an all-time low of 2% in the future. But concerns about increased government spending led traders to predict the likelihood that monetary tightening will start as soon as this year.

Central bank president Roberto Campos Neto has warned that the country will not be able to keep interest rates low and slow inflation in the long run if public spending gets out of hand. For now, price pressures from fuel and food have been dismissed by policymakers as a temporary shock.

What Our Economists Say

“The main risk for our base case scenario – a stable policy rate at 2% through the end of 2021 – comes not from inflation itself, but from the fiscal outlook. If President Jair Bolsonaro ignores existing fiscal rules, the central bank may be forced to raise policy rates despite the economic downturn. “

–Adriana Dupita, Latin American Economist for Bloomberg Economics

Food and beverage inflation increased to 2.28% from the previous month and was responsible for 0.46 percentage points of the main index. Staples such as rice and soy cooking oil cause higher prices. Transportation costs rose 0.70%.

The central bank has shifted its focus to inflation next year, and while on the one hand the pressure from real weakness could trigger further increases in commodity-related costs, on the other hand there is still an increasing sluggishness in the economy as Brazil heads into its worst one-year recession in Note, rising unemployment and ending government cash transfers may limit demand. Currently, the central bank indicates that the benchmark interest rate will remain stable for the next meeting.

“Inflation shocks may be more persistent than central bank estimates. Further weakness of the real could increase pass-throughs and wholesale prices could affect contracts starting next year, ”said Necton Investimentos chief economist Andre Perfeito. “Unemployment is still increasing and this could limit price increases.”

“In terms of controlling inflation, the good news is that the economy is in bad shape,” he said.


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