Emerging data shows only three people who traveled directly from Australia to New Zealand tested positive for Covid-19 for eight months.

This has been welcomed by experts as a positive step towards a transtasman bubble – but they say New Zealand needs to up its border game to Australian level to reduce the risk of creating a Covid-19 outbreak.

Data showing the three positive cases came through the Official Information Act request to the Ministry of Health seeking the number of positive cases of Covid-19 since March last year. That shows that there were 39 positive cases in March and April last year – then almost none.

One case was identified in August, one in November and another in January. NZ statistics show that during the same period 23,447 people traveled from Australia to New Zealand.

Otago University epidemiology professors Dr Nick Wilson and Dr Michael Baker support the data which add strength to the argument for the bubble but add a note of caution. Academics last year conducted research on alternative ways to manage incoming travelers.

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Wilson said a “prudent” system was needed for quarantine-free travel between Australia and New Zealand.

It includes a development process so that every incoming Australian traveler is required to download a Ministry of Health app to scan a QR code, activate its bluetooth function and agree to use it at every opportunity during the first few weeks.

He said a saliva test at the airport would also reduce risks, as would a ban on attending large-scale events and conducting spot checks on travelers with fines for those who circumvent the rules.

“I hope they talk about these things now. The economic benefits are huge.

“In general, I would be more concerned with New Zealand border controls than Australia. We just have a loose process.”

He said quarantine rules in Australia offered a higher level of protection from the virus, including rules such as restricted arrivals in their rooms upon arrival. In New Zealand, areas of risk include bus travel for exercise, movement in MIQ facilities, smoking mingling in outdoor areas without masks, and other areas.

He said New Zealand’s approach had been locked in a “pathway dependency”, meaning the government was struggling to deviate from systems developed as the pandemic approached.

Wilson said the vaccination programs in both countries are also encouraging and as the percentage of the population being vaccinated has increased, so has the belief to free travel.

Baker said the figures were “very supportive evidence” for the transtasman bubble. That’s not suggesting risk-free travel but a new system – as outlined by Wilson – could reduce risk to a manageable level.

“It’s never ‘without risk.’ There will always be risk. It’s about managing it successfully.”

He said he prefers to use the term “green zone” to identify low-risk countries, whereas those with high risk are in the “red zone”. He said a greater job in “red zone” countries managing those traveling to New Zealand would reduce the likelihood of border breaches.

“This is an opportunity to compare our borders with Australia. The world needs a model of success. This is a great opportunity to show a model that can be rolled out globally.”

Baker said those who travel should accept that outbreaks of the communities they visit can lead to being trapped there.

“That would be a trade-off – all travelers have to do this with their eyes open. Things can change very quickly.”

University of Auckland associate professor of microbiology Dr Siouxsie Wiles said the data showing the three infected travelers from Australia were encouraging.

“There’s always a complication that not everyone infects others – and some become super spreaders.”

Wiles said it was important for those traveling from Australia not to share planes with those transiting from other countries because of the possibility of contracting Covid-19 while flying.

He said one possible risk to manage was the opening up of space in MIQ and an increase in travelers from less safe countries.

Health Minister Chris Hipkins said he was aware of the figure and Australia was seen as a lower risk for origin cases, which is why so much work has led to the transtasman bubble.

“But as we have said before, low risk is not without risk. While we are always clear, we want to open this particular bubble as soon as we can, it will not happen until both countries feel equally comfortable with the risk.”

Hipkins said the time it takes to travel to Australia has reinforced New Zealand’s positioin for a “wider reopening of travel”, including issues such as insurance, a clear message for those who have to seek cover, and the impact on airlines and airports that face numbers. more passengers. arrival in the Covid-19 environment.

“Strengthening our position in terms of travel between here and Australia will help us set a sustainable pattern for the future.”

BusinessNZ chief executive Kirk Hope said there was a desire to bubble travel with Australia.

“But if those costs raise the alert level in Auckland, it’s a zero-sum game. The economic costs outweigh the benefits.”

Action Party leader David Seymour said questions remained about the quality of New Zealand’s border controls even as Australia had upgraded its system.

Seymour said New Zealand needed to stop seeing the world as having an equal risk around the world and develop a system that is responsive to the “hot spots” of Covid-19.

Until that happened, he said it echoed an Australian question: “New Zealand, where the hell are you bleeding?”

A Health Ministry spokesman said the data – along with other information – was being used to develop New Zealand’s response to Covid-19. “This includes potential travel bubbles and when this could occur.”

Data showing the three positive cases was collected through the ESR database based on people being asked about the last three countries in which they spent time.