The state’s latest epidemiological report says that the downward trend in infections and treatment at COVID-19 hospitals can be reversed.
The number of people who have been infected by coronavirus is about double that previously estimated, according to the latest estimates released by the Oregon Health Authority.
Citing new guidelines from the Federal Center for Disease Control, state modelers say their best estimate for infection in Oregon is around 20,000, a significant jump from more than 10,000 estimated by state modelers two weeks ago.
The new estimates do not indicate worsening of the disease. Instead, this is new research that shows how often the virus is not detected.
The report, however, suggests the worsening of the disease may be after the country begins to reopen. It estimates that a mixture of voluntary social distance and directed by the government has reduced transmission of the virus by about 70% from where everything would have happened otherwise, and treated it as a baseline.
It projects alternative scenarios for the future, one assumption of a reduction of 60% from the baseline and another assumption of 50% from the baseline. It was not mentioned which was more likely, noting that the data only extended until May 22 and would not capture changes due to time lags in diagnosis and testing.
Under a 60% reduction from the initial scenario, the new infection will remain roughly stable on about 50 a day on July 3, rather than 15 per day Oregon will see if it does not begin to reopen.
Under the 50% scenario, on July 3 new infections would reach 155 every day.
The report notes that all of its estimates represent rough probabilities, one of the state’s modelers is 80% confident. For example, the actual range of possible infections is 14,400 to 27,300 according to the report.
(This article will be updated today.)
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