An international study led by Nanyang Technological University (NTU) in Singapore has found that global average sea level rise can exceed one meter at 2100 and five meters at 2300 if global targets on emissions are not achieved.
The study uses projections by more than 100 international experts for global average sea level changes in two climate scenarios – low and high emissions. In scenarios where global warming is limited to 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, experts estimate a rise of 0.5 meters at 2100 and 0.5 to two meters at 2300. In high emission scenarios with 4.5 degrees Celsius warming, Experts estimated that the increase was greater than 0.6 to 1.3 meters in 2100 and 1.7 to 5.6 meters in 2300.
Sea level rise projections exceed previous estimates by the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).
“We know that the planet will see additional sea level rise in the future,” said co-author Dr. Andra Garner, Assistant Professor of Environmental Sciences at Rowan University in the US. “But there are striking differences in the number of sea level rise expert projects for low emissions compared to high emissions. This gives a lot of hope for the future as well as strong motivation to act now to avoid the more severe effects of sea level rise. “
This study is based on opinions informed by 106 sea level experts. The 106 experts who participated in the survey were chosen because they were one of the most active publishers of scientific sea-level studies (at least six papers published in peer-reviewed journals since 2014) were identified from leading publication databases.
Responding to open questions, climate change experts identified Greenland and Antarctica Ice Sheets as the biggest source of uncertainty. This ice sheet is an important indicator of climate change and a driver of sea level rise. Satellite-based measurements show the ice sheet is melting at high speed. However, experts also note that the magnitude and impact of sea level rise can be limited by successfully reducing emissions.
Professor Benjamin Horton, Acting Chairperson of the NTU Asian School of Environment, led the survey published in the Journal of the Partners of Nature, Climate and Atmospheric Sciences. Collaborative projects include researchers from the University of Hong Kong, Maynooth University (Ireland), Durham University (UK), Rowan University, Tufts University (US), and the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (Germany).