In a study published this week painted a gloomy picture for the future of polar bears, especially in low Arctic.
University of Toronto-led analysis puts the timing of when different polar bear groups will fight.
He says that during this decade, the bears in southern Hudson Bay will move from “most likely” run the risk “very likely” in danger, under the intermediate scenario of climate change.
Report published in the journal Nature climate change says the cubs Denisov Strait and West of Hudson Bay will follow a similar path for decades thereafter.
Polar bears use sea ice as a method of printing on a hunt, but when the ice recedes, the bears take to the land and eat less energy-rich foods effectively fasting for the summer months.
As climate change causes a further decrease of sea ice in summer, bears have been fasting for longer periods, with already noticeable effects on the forms of reproduction.
“The first scientific study on polar bears and climate change was published in 1993. We knew that they would be affected. The fact that we don’t know when they will be affected,” said the study’s lead author, Peter Molnar, Professor, associate Professor of biological Sciences at the University of Toronto Scarborough.
“The results are not surprising, but very important. And I hope that this underlines the urgency of the problem, and now actually be able to put a timetable on these changes.”
The study looked at 13 of the 19 sub-populations in the world of polar bears.
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On the more pessimistic climate projections, it forecasts that the young and/or adult bears are “very likely” or “imminent” risk in 10 of the 13 regions by the end of this century.
Even Queen Elizabeth Islands in the far North of the Arctic archipelago of Canada to see the cubs in the “possible” risks to 2080 years.
“We are mainly asking two questions. First, how long do polar bears have to live without ice? And as a result, how long they will fast in the future?”, said Molnar.
“And the second question is how long they will be able to quickly considering how thick they are and how much energy they need every day?”
Predictions of climate change refined
Polar research bear comes in a week when another group of researchers have narrowed certainty as the planet’s surface will warm in response to increasing levels of carbon dioxide (CO2) in the atmosphere — what is known as ‘climate sensitivity.’
Since 1979, the researchers used a range of estimates that, when the level of CO2 in the atmosphere from pre-industrial levels, there is a 66% chance the average global temperature will rise in the range of 1.5 to 4.5 degrees.
A new four-year analysis published in review of Geophysicswas composed of 21 scientists from around the world.
They say that the most likely range was improved for “2.6 C to 4.1 C, with a best estimate of just above 3 SECONDS,” adding that there are less than five percent probability that temperatures will be below two degrees and “6-18% chance of higher than 4.5 C.”
The world has not yet doubled its level of CO2, but current levels of atmospheric about 35 percent of the peak above the pre-industrial era.
Most of this growth occurred in the last 40 years.
“The study provides a balanced kind of opinion that we are not doomed, but we should also not be too careless, because the Earth will warm in response to emissions of CO2 into the atmosphere,” said one of the authors, Dr. Kasia Tokarska, from the Institute for atmospheric and climate science in Zurich, Switzerland.
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“I think it gives us a more powerful view of belief that we already know.”
This new, more targeted temperature range cannot be displayed directly on the two scenarios in polar bear research, but it suggests an intermediate scenario can be close to the best you can hope for, given our current trajectory of emissions.
The polar bear analysis is the two so-called The representative concentration path (RCP) scenarios.
These scripts keep track of all projected levels of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and not just CO2 in the atmosphere, based on how the world government, politics, and human behavior influencing the concentration of greenhouse gases.
The researchers chose the intermediate RCP4.5 scenario, which sees PG tapering from the mid-century flattening out to 2100.
The second, pessimistic scenario RCP8.5, and.to.a. “business as usual”, where the levels of greenhouse gases continue to rise sharply for the rest of the 21st century.
“If we manage to temper, to mitigate our emissions in RCP4.5 scenario… then we unfortunately will still lose some populations of polar bears in the southern part of their range,” said Molnar.
“But we give North a better chance to survive.”
Analysis of the NASA Arctic sea ice specifies that the reduction is not slowing down.
He says that the minimum volume of ice — is observed annually in September — falls to 12.85 percent for the decade.
NASA watched the 2012 ice extent to be the lowest.
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