Tag Archives: statistics

German exports recovered in November but remained below pre-coronavirus levels | Instant News


(MENAFN) On Friday, January 8, the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis) stated that German exports during November 2020 increased by 2.2 percent compared with October to 111.7 billion euros (USD136.6 billion).

During November, German exports continued to recover from the decline caused by the coronavirus pandemic but remained 4.7 percent lower compared to February 2020, the month before the constraints started in the country.

Destatis said Indonesia’s exports to China continued to increase and had reached 14.3 percent compared to last year, around USD11.36 billion in November.

Christian Grimme of the Center for Macroeconomics and Surveying at the Ifo Institute told Xinhua on Friday that the main reasons for this were China’s “fast economic recovery” and “faster control of the coronavirus.”

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Brazil: Down to 14.3 percent seen in unemployment rate | Instant News


(MENAFN) On Tuesday, December 29, the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) stated in a report that the unemployment rate in Brazil fell to 14.3 percent in the three months to October, an unprecedented decline in the flow of year.

The unemployment rate increased 2.7 percentage points from the previous year and is up 0.5 percentage points from the last three months in 2020.

Brazil’s number of unemployed in the three months to October stood at 14.1 million, an increase of nearly one million, or 7 percent, during the May-July timeframe and 13.7 percent higher than a year earlier, the report added.

The number of employed persons stood at 84.3 million, an increase of 2.8 percent over the May-July timeframe, but 9.8 million less than the previous year.

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IMF Executive Board Concludes 2020 Article IV Consultations with UK | Instant News


Washington, DC: International Monetary Fund (IMF) Executive Board concludes Article IV consultations [1] with Great Britain.

The UK economy enters 2020 with some challenges but also with some strengths. The main challenges include agreeing a post-Brexit trade deal with the EU, weak productivity growth, large regional disparities in income, population aging (and its impact on pension spending), and the need to strengthen climate policy. At the same time, the economy is operating at full employment, inflation is close to target, household and corporate debt burdens have fallen substantially since 2009, the banking system is well capitalized and liquid, and fiscal adjustments have set debt on a downward trajectory. , with the available fiscal space.

The pandemic has taken significant human and economic casualties, tempered by an aggressive policy response. More tragic health effects could be averted with the spring lock, subsequent lockdowns and a second lockout announced in early November. These health restrictions hit economic activity hard, with a sharp fall in GDP in Q2. Nonetheless, a coordinated fiscal, monetary and financial sector policy response has helped curb unemployment and bankruptcy. Despite the rebound as the economy reopens in the summer, growth for 2020 is likely to be around -11 percent, with core inflation below target, and the account deficit currently under control at around 2½ percent.

The prospects are challenging. The second lockout has reduced activity. The prolonged social distancing thereafter and the friction associated with the adoption of the new Brexit trade regime are expected to produce strong barriers until mid-2021 (and even longer if a free trade agreement cannot be reached). However, as full reopening occurs aided by vaccines, GDP is projected to recover and grow by 5.7 percent in 2021 and around 4.5 percent in 2022. A faster recovery will be held back by corporate and household pressure due to fiscal support shocks subsided and the economy adjusted structurally to the new landscape after the immediate effects of Covid and Brexit receded. By 2025, output levels are projected to recover to about 5 percent below their pre-Covid trend, reflecting temporarily weaker investment and higher unemployment. The risks to the outlook point to the downside, centering on the speed with which the impact of the pandemic is fading and the degree of damage to the balance sheets experienced by households and small and medium enterprises. Faster vaccine deployment can reduce risk.

Executive Board Assessment [2]

The directors noted that the pandemic has caused significant human and economic casualties in a British economy already facing the pressure of Brexit and long-term challenges. They lauded the authorities’ strong and coordinated policy response, which had helped reduce the damage. With uncertainty still high, the Directors stressed that policy support will remain essential to see the economy through the pandemic and transition to a post-Brexit trading regime.

The directors stressed that fiscal policy must continue to fund targeted pandemic support programs. They underscore the need to be prepared to respond if further downside risks materialize and welcome the flexibility of the authorities in this regard. As the pandemic subsides, targeted fiscal support using the available space can help drive growth. The directors welcomed the authorities’ plans to expand public investment and recommended an assessment of the adequacy of the public investment management framework.

The directors stressed that the gradual fiscal consolidation needed to contain the debt burden in the medium term, should only start after the private sector leads the recovery strongly. They see benefits in a full expenditure review to prepare for consolidation. A number of directors also suggested being open to considering some adjustments to the main tax rate and exploring fiscal measures to support the climate agenda. In this context, the Director set a positive note on the UK’s ambitious climate plan.

The Board of Directors considers that monetary policy must remain accommodative and welcomes the Bank of England’s commitment to increase government bond purchases. They generally note that negative policy rates can be part of the toolkit but recommend further study of how best to implement them. The Board of Directors emphasizes the role of the financial system in financing recovery. While recognizing the bank’s sizeable buffer, they cautioned that the uncertainty related to pressure on SMEs and commercial property prices requires continued oversight.

The directors underlined that adjusting to the pandemic and Brexit would require some reallocation of labor and capital. They see room to further strengthen social safety nets, enhance active labor market policies, streamline bankruptcy procedures, and open up equity financing.

The directors lauded the UK’s enviable track record of policy frameworks. They suggest considering updating the fiscal framework if needed once the uncertainty subsides. Whether the monetary framework may require adjustments to address the risk of persistent low inflation is also worth considering. The 2021 FSAP will also be an opportunity to consider emerging financial sector challenges.

The directors stressed that a deal on a new post-Brexit trade regime would benefit Britain and the EU and reduce spillovers to the outside. They welcomed the steps being taken to eliminate systemic financial sector risks and urged British authorities to complete preparations for trade infrastructure. An emergency plan will be needed if no agreement is reached. In such a scenario, it is important to keep expectations tied and pursue stronger policy support.

United Kingdom: Selected Economic Indicators, 2015-21

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

Projection

Real Economy (change in percent)

Real GDP

2.4

1.7

1.7

1.3

1.3

-11.2

5.7

Personal final domestic requests

3.7

3.7

1.4

1.2

0.9

-14.8

4.5

CPI, end period

0.1

1.2

3.0

2.3

1.4

0.7

1.7

Unemployment rate (in percent) 1 /

5.4

4.9

4.4

4.1

3.8

4.8

7.3

Gross national saving (percent of GDP)

12.7

12.4

14.4

14.1

14.0

14.4

12.5

Gross domestic investment (percent of GDP)

17.7

17.8

18.2

17.8

18.3

17.0

16.8

Public Finance (fiscal year, percent of GDP)

Public sector overall balance sheet

-4.2

-2.6

-2.6

-1.8

-2.5

-19.1

-7.6

Cyclically adjusted public sector primary accounts (staff estimates)

-2.4

-1.1

-0.9

-0.5

-0.9

-13.9

-4.0

Public sector net debt 2 /

78.7

77.6

81.1

79.9

84.6

106.4

109.9

Money and Credits (end period, 12 month percent change)

M4

0.3

6.3

3.8

2.1

3.8

Net borrowing for the private sector

2.8

3.8

3.7

3.6

3.2

Interest rate (percent; year average)

Three month interbank interest rate

0.6

0.5

0.4

0.7

0.8

Ten year government bond yield

1.9

1.3

1.2

1.5

0.9

Balance of Payments (percent of GDP)

Current account balance

-5.0

-5.4

-3.8

-3.7

-4.3

-2.6

-4.2

Balance of trade

-1.5

-1.8

-1.4

-1.2

-1.4

0.8

-1.7

Net exports of oil

-0.3

-0.2

0.0

0.0

-0.3

-0.2

-0.2

Exports of goods and services (change in volume as a percent)

2.8

2.7

5.4

3.0

2.8

-13.5

4.4

Imports of goods and services (change in volume as a percent)

5.4

3.9

2.6

2.7

3.3

-20.2

12.8

Trading conditions (percent change)

2.6

0.2

-1.1

0.6

-0.1

-0.7

-1.1

FDI Network

-3.6

-11.0

1.7

-0.8

-3.1

-1.6

1.0

Reserves (period end, billions of US dollars)

130.5

136.6

158.6

176.6

182.7

Fund Position (as of 31 May 2016)

Currency ownership (in percent quota)

82.5

82.5

82.5

82.5

Ownership of SDR (in percent of allocation)

70.2

70.2

70.2

70.2

Quota (in million SDR)

20,155

20,155

20,155

20,155

Exchange rate

Exchange rate regime

Floating

Bilateral level (8 September 2020)

US $ 1 = £ 0.7679

Nominal effective rate (2010 = 100, year average) 3 /

113.4

102.3

96.3

97.9

97.7

Real effective rate (2010 = 100, year average) 3 /

113.7

102.4

97.1

98.8

98.3

Sources: Bank of England; IMF Information Notification System; HM Treasury; National Statistics Office; and IMF staff estimates.

1 / ILO unemployment; based on Labor Force Survey data.

2 / Fiscal year starts in April. Debt stock data refers to the end of the fiscal year using centralized GDP as the denominator.

3 / Starting September 2020.


[1] Under Article IV of the IMF Agreement Articles, the IMF holds bilateral discussions with its members, usually annually. A team of staff visits the country, collects economic and financial information, and discusses officials about the country’s economic developments and policies. On returning to headquarters, the staff prepares a report, which forms the basis of discussion by the Executive Board.

[2] At the end of the discussion, the Managing Director, as Chairman of the Board, summarizes the views of the Executive Director, and this summary is sent to the state authorities. A description of any qualifications used in the summary can be found here: https://www.IMF.org/external/np/sec/misc/qualifiers.htm .

/ Public Release. Material in this public release comes from the original organization and may be point-in-time, edited for clarity, style and length. view more here.

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New Zealand’s Population Could Reach 6 Million By 2050 | Instant News


New Zealand’s population could reach 6 million by 2050, and could reach this milestone more rapidly depending on migration and birth rates, Stats NZ said today.

Stats NZ has released projections for the population typically residing in New Zealand. The new projections have an estimated population of 5.1 million as of 30 June 2020 as a baseline and cover the period 2020–73.

“The population of New Zealand reached 4 million people in 2003,” said senior population insights manager Brooke Theyers.

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Brazil: GDP recovered 7.7 percent | Instant News


(MENAFN) The state-run Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) said on Thursday that the Brazilian economy recovered 7.7 percent in the third quarter compared with the second quarter.

However, the expansion rate, a hard-earned payoff after the pandemic-triggered downturn, was still lower than the 8.8 percent average forecast by fiscal analysts, and failed to cover this year’s losses.

Latin America’s largest financial system, which has been badly affected by the coronavirus, has seen its economy plunge into a depression following two straight quarters of decline this year.

As of Wednesday, Brazil’s coronavirus death toll stood at 174,515, after 698 more patients died in the past 24 hours, the country’s health ministry said.

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