Forecasters call the Christmas forecast “very lucky,” because while it may not be a hot and scorching Kiwi summer day, it could be much worse.

After a week of rain and torrential rain in most parts of the country, MetService now predicts a relatively quiet Christmas Day in most places, although for some places it may feel a little closer to winter than they would like.

Tropical Cyclone Yasa, the former category 5 system that destroyed parts of Fiji and killed four people, has now been downgraded to a tropical cyclone as it moves south of Tonga.

At one stage, it appeared tracking for a direct attack on the North Island but, thanks to this week’s strong high pressure, the system has weakened substantially and every remainder is looking to track down the southeastern part of the country.

“We are very fortunate not to have a tropical cyclone hit us over Christmas,” said MetService meteorologist Ashlee Parkes.

“It’s still active so it’s hard to trace, but at this stage it appears to be moving southeast of the country.”

However, two low pressure systems are expected to arrive in the coming days from across the Tasman Sea.

Although not associated with the Yasa, they will bring warm tropical air from the northwest, which means plenty of humidity for the West Coast of the South Island.

The eastern part of the North Island will be a hotspot, with conditions and temperatures at their best in the late 20s.

Parkes said the first lows would bring rain on Monday to most of the South Island.

Keep the heavy rains in effect today for Westland south of Glacier and Fiordland north of Milford Sound.

The North Island looks pretty good, with only a few showers in the interior of southern Waikato.

Low temperatures will continue across the country on Tuesday, bringing torrential rains to the two main islands.

The system will gradually clear up on Wednesday, with the North Island looking good again along with the South Island early, before another, lower arriving late brings more rain to the West Coast and potentially spreading east to Canterbury.

This is likely to continue through Thursday, before clearing up at night with calmer southwest streams taking over.

“It will cause isolated rain in the west and that’s fine but with a cloudy period in the east,” said Parkes.

“This isn’t your classic Kiwi summer day, but it will be even better than what we will have earlier this week.”

On big days, Auckland will witness beautiful spells and high temperatures of 21C.

The best spots are seen in the eastern part of the North Island, with Tauranga and Napier hitting 25C highs and mostly sunny weather.

Meanwhile, the South Island looks a little worse, taking on more of the weight of the cool southwest stream.

Christchurch will hit 18C, while Dunedin will only hit 16C with the shower and Invercargill 15C even cooler.

Christmas Day Forecast

Whangarei Good spell. Southwesterlies easing. 24C high, 15C overnight.

Auckland Good spell. Southwesterlies easing. High 21C, 15C overnight.

Hamilton Good spell. Southwesterlies is gradually dying. 22C high, 10C overnight.

Tauranga Good spell. Southwest is dying in the morning. 25C high, 13C overnight.

New Plymouth Good spell. Southwesterlies. High 20C, 11C overnight.

Rotorua Good spell. Southwest is dying in the morning. 23C high, 10C overnight.

Napier Cloudy period. Southerlies are gradually dying. High 25C, 14C overnight.

WellingtonAlright. Southerners are dying in the afternoon. High 20C, 11C overnight.

NelsonAlright. Southwest is dying. 22C high, 10C overnight.

ChristchurchCloudy period. Northeast is growing. 18C high, 8C overnight.

DunedinCloudy period. Rain from morning. The wind became light. High 16C, 8C overnight.