Jenness Mitchell and Ross Govans
A famous expert “very optimistically” believes that the coronavirus will be eliminated in Scotland before Christmas.
Professor Hugh Pennington, an emeritus professor of bacteriology at the University of Aberdeen, said he was “skeptical” of a new report from the Academy of Medical Sciences.
It warned that in a “reasonably worst case”, the second wave of coronavirus infection could cause 120,000 hospital deaths in the UK between September and June of the following year.
Professor Pennington said in an interview with STV News: “I am a bit doubtful whether there will be a second wave of this magnitude.”
He said that there might be another outbreak, but I believe that this scale is “unlikely” because there is now a “good system” for detection and self-isolation.
Professor Pennington said: “We may have some cases in circulation, because this has been happening in recent months, but the number of cases is declining, so I am very optimistic that we will look well before Christmas Until the virus is turned off.”
Professor Pennington said that the research team has learned a lot about the virus through “painful experiences”.
Thanks to data published globally and research conducted in Scotland, scientists can now fingerprint this virus.
Experts believe that Covid-19 will behave like the flu and will become busier before Christmas, which lasts until February. However, Professor Pennington warned: “I’m afraid only time will tell.”
However, the research team does know where the virus likes to spread.
Professor Pennington said: “It likes to breathe hard, let us say this, you know.
“Bars are cluttered and chaotic-a good place for viruses, a bad place for people there.”
Before the warning is issued, Scotland will further relax the blockade restrictions on Wednesday to allow people to return to bars, restaurants, hotels, barber shops and places of worship.
The official death toll in Scotland is 2,490, but weekly figures on the number of suspected deaths at Covid-19 indicate that the latest total has now exceeded 4100.
In the UK, more than 44,000 people have died after the virus was positive.
Academy of Medical Sciences report
The Academy of Medical Sciences report from 37 scientists and scholars acknowledges that there is a high degree of uncertainty in the way the Covid-19 epidemic evolves in the UK in the coming months, but proposes a “reasonable worst case”: from September, The R interest rate will rise to 1.7.
The research team also studied a less severe situation, with an R value of 1.1, which caused 1,300 deaths between September and June.
R refers to the number of people expected to be infected with the virus.
Academic models indicate that the number of hospitalizations and deaths in January and February 2021 may peak, similar to or even higher than the first wave of spring 2020.
It does not include deaths in communities or nursing homes.
These figures have not taken into account government interventions to reduce the rate of infection, nor the use of dexamethasone in the intensive care unit, which has been shown to reduce deaths.
Professor Stephen Holgate, clinical professor of immunopharmacology who chaired the study, said: “This is not a prediction, but it is possible.
“The model shows that the use of a new round of Covid-19 this winter may lead to a higher number of deaths, but if we take immediate action, we can reduce the risk of this happening.
“Because there are currently relatively few cases of Covid-19, this is an important window of opportunity that can help us prepare for the worst that winter may bring us.”
Professor Holgate recommends that some actions be taken before winter comes-including the vaccination of the vulnerable groups and health and social care workers.
He said that testing and tracking must be “upgraded in winter”, emphasizing that because winter diseases usually have symptoms similar to Covid-19, more people need to be tested.
He also called for the establishment of a “rapid surveillance system” in the UK to stop the outbreak in the area.
Professor Azra Ghani, chairman of the Epidemiology of Infectious Diseases at Imperial College London, also participated in the study. He said that many factors may increase the R value to 1.7, including school and return to work More contact between people.
She said that the virus is known to spread more easily indoors, and highlighted that people spend more time indoors in winter.
She added: “In addition, we are unlikely to open the window, the door will often be closed to prevent the cold, which will again increase the efficiency of the spread.
“Under cold conditions, the virus itself may survive longer.”
NHS committee plan in place
The Scottish Minister of Health said that plans to deal with the possible increase in coronavirus cases in the next few months are “going smoothly.”
Jeanne Freeman said the National Health Service Commission has been told to maintain additional capacity in the intensive care unit (ICU) and other wards.
She said at the Scottish Government’s daily briefing on Tuesday: “The autumn and winter planning for the NHS in Scotland is ongoing, including discussions with our social care colleagues.
“We have suggested that our board of directors have the capacity to cope with the surge in the number of Covid beds and intensive care units.
“We also consider the infections and viruses caused by the flu and other respiratory diseases in winter.”
She added: “We cannot think that our NHS does not have to deal with a substantial increase in Covid-19 cases in a hospital setting or primary and community medical setting.
“When we reduce the number of infections, we will best cope with autumn and winter.”
First Minister Nicola Sturgeon said the more immediate risk is the resurgence of the first wave of coronavirus.
She said: “The real risk now is that the first wave takes off again.
“This is our top priority to stop this situation, which is very important for itself, but it is also important to ensure that we do not enter the winter because the infection level is still very high.”
After urge fish announced for the sixth consecutive day that the death of Covid-19 would no longer occur in Scotland, St Fish said: “After four months of pain, but due to the blockade, we were able to stop the first wave.
“By putting ourselves in a locked state, we also put the virus in a locked state.”
She added: “When we released from the lock, we also released the virus from it, so we have to work in other ways to make it under control.
“This means that all of us-each of us-strictly abide by the rules.”
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