US corona virus: Influential model projects 135,000 deaths in the US, almost double the last estimate | Instant News

The model, from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington, previously estimated 72,433 deaths on Monday morning.

The sharp increase in the two models is related to relaxed social easing and increased mobility in the US. Countries throughout the country – including Florida, Colorado, Indiana, Nebraska and South Carolina – have eased restrictions in an effort to revive the stuttered economy and calm uneasy populations.

Projections make it clear that this reopening carries a fatal risk.

“This is simple logic,” said CNN senior medical correspondent Elizabeth Cohen. “When you tell people, ‘Hey, you can go to a bar, you can finish your nails, you can go to a restaurant,’ the numbers will go up.”

The incubation period for this novel corona virus – or the time from exposure to developing symptoms – ranges from two to 14 days, According to the CDC, and viruses can be evenly distributed spread among people who have no symptoms at all. With Extensive testing is still limited, the consequences of this reopening may not be clear for several weeks.

Ali Mokdad, a professor of Health Metrics at IHME, told CNN John King on Monday that there were “several reasons” for increasing the projections.

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“One of them is increased mobility before relaxation, early relaxation, social distance,” he said. “We also add more suspected deaths, and we see many outbreaks in the Midwest, for example.”

He said several variables affected infection – such as heat, testing capacity and population density – but “the most important thing was mobility.”

At present, he said, “we are seeing an increase in mobility that leads to an increase in deaths, unfortunately, in the United States.”

In addition, IHME director Dr. Christopher Murray said there were “longer deaths,” which meant some states would see a slower decline in deaths.

Coronavirus has killed 68,285 people in the US and infected more than 1,171,000 the other, according to data from Johns Hopkins University.
President Donald Trump had previously said he estimated 65,000 Americans would die, but on Sunday night, he revised the estimate of the death toll up to 80,000 to 90,000 people. This may not be the last upward revision; Deborah Birx, a White House coronavirus task force official, said projection has shown between 100,000 to 240,000 deaths in America, even at social distance.

Another reopening in the US

 An aerial view shows a crowd of protesters calling for the reopening of businesses and beaches as the coronavirus pandemic continues to paralyze the economy in Huntington Beach, California on Friday.

Among other reopens that begin Monday:

– In Colorado, offices can be reopened at 50% capacity with other guidelines, including allowing 6 feet between employee desks and increased cleaning. However, the state encourages businesses to allow telecommuting whenever possible.

– In Florida, the first phase of reopening begins. That phase allows elective surgery, and the restaurant can open to eat outside with 6 feet between the table and indoor seating with a 25% capacity. Stores can be reopened with a capacity of 25%. Other businesses – including bars, gyms and hair salons – will remain closed.

– In Nebraska, most churches, salons, and restaurants can be reopened.

– In South Carolina, “work-or-home” orders are made voluntarily and restaurants can start dining outdoors.

– In Vermont, Governor Phil Scott expects thousands of residents to return to work after an executive order allows them to operate with new safety rules. Manufacturing, construction and distribution businesses can operate with 10 or fewer employees.

– Orders to stay at home will also end Monday in Kansas and West Virginia.

Even in countries reopening, officials continue to recommend people stay at least 6 feet away from others, wear a cloth face mask outside the house, wash your hands often and avoid touching their faces.

Public pressure to reduce restrictions is increasing even in countries with significant outbreaks. This weekend, thousands of people gathered in California to protest the coronavirus restrictions, which led to 32 arrests in the state capital.

New York cases are down, but others are up

In some countries, the number of cases of corona virus continues to decline, while other regions face challenges.

California is “days, not weeks” from the start to lift restrictions on permanent orders in the state, said Governor Gavin Newsom. But that is unlikely to happen in the entire state. Los Angeles Mayor Eric Garcetti said he did not think the city would reopen earlier than May 15.

Another part of California has been reopened. In Northern California, restaurants, salons, spas, tattoo halls, shopping centers and fitness centers will all be open to residents of Yuba and Sutter countries.

Be careful of the experts & slide the slide & # 39; looming for children out of school

New York Governor Andrew Cuomo reports that the number of intubations in the states hardest hit by coronavirus is down, and the total number of hospitalizations is below 10,000 for the first time since March.

However, he has expressed frustration with the slow decline in cases, especially compared to how quickly cases increased initially.

“We are on the other side of the mountain … (but) the decline from the mountain is not as sharp as the slope,” he said.

But the increase does not mean that this nation can reduce its vigilance.

Boston Mayor Marty Walsh said the number in his city had risen, and he was worried about relaxed restrictions.

“We are still very much in the early days of coronavirus,” Walsh said.

Member of the White House Coronavirus Task Force, Dr. Anthony Fauci also warned that premature precautions could cause a viral rebound that could put the US in “the same boat we experienced a few weeks ago.”

And second round of the virus, he said, could not be avoided. The severity will depend on how ready the nation is, he said.

People flooded the park and the beach

People gather for sunset at South Pointe Park on April 29, 2020 in Miami Beach, Florida.

Amid relaxed restrictions and heat waves, police face challenges in several open spaces, including lack of social distance and limited use of face masks.

For example, The Miami Beach Police Department announced it was going to South Pointe Park again until further notice due to non-compliance.

Across from Miami Beach over the weekend, more than 7,300 warnings were issued for not wearing face masks, according to police. More than 470 warnings were issued for failing to maintain social distance, and more than 1,300 people were asked to leave the park after closing.

In New York, where parks are full of people sunbathing long distances this weekend, Governor Cuomo said on Sunday that not wearing a mask in public wasimpolite“for others.

To overcome this, New York City distributes 7.5 million face masks in various locations around the city, Mayor Bill de Blasio announced Monday morning.

Five million three-layer non-medical masks and 2.5 million face masks will be distributed wherever social distance guidance is implemented, including grocery stores, public parks, and the Staten Island Ferry. Face masks will also be available on the New York Housing Authority website and the city dining program site.

In California, anger increased at the governor for closing several beaches. Two coastal cities in Southern California chose to submit an order last weekend defying the governor’s order to temporarily close all beaches in Orange County.

Jim Acosta from CNN, Nikki Carvajal, Sara Murray, Holly Yan, Jamie Gumbrecht, Laura Donlan, Kristina Sgueglia, Chuck Johnston, Alta D. Mantra and Alison Main contributed to this report.


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