“The gradual development of this system is still expected, and is likely to become a tropical or subtropical storm on Saturday when it is located near the northwest Bahamas,” said the National Hurricane Center (NHC).
This will be the sixth year in a row that there will be a storm before the start of the hurricane season on June 1.
If the system in the Atlantic is named, it is Arthur. However, it may be classified more as a sub-tropical storm.
“A subtropical storm is a hybrid between ordinary areas with low pressure, which has a cold core, and a pure tropical system, which has a warm core,” said CNN meteorologist Dave Hennen.
Regardless of whether it gets a name or not, the storm will continue to bring periods of heavy rain to parts of the Florida Keys, southeast Florida, and in the Bahamas, until Saturday.
Tropical wind gusts are possible throughout the region.
Although this system is largely disorganized, it is expected to move to areas where the environment is far more favorable. This will allow the storm to become more organized and stronger.
If and when a hurricane is formed, most forecast models keep the storm close to the southeast coast before curving back into the Atlantic.
However, “dangerous wave conditions and rip currents may occur along the southeastern coast of the US this weekend and early next week,” the NHC said.
The tropics are heating up all over the world
The Pacific Ocean region has an interesting start to the tropical season. On April 25, Tropical Depression ONE-E formed in the southern Baja California region, marking the first tropical depression recorded in April for the East Pacific Ocean.
The first storm of the year is expected to develop in the Bay of Bengal this weekend and is likely to be quite strong when it impacts India and Bangladesh next week.
While this season has already begun, the Atlantic does not officially begin until June 1.
The official Atlantic seasonal estimates do not come from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration until May 21. But there are more than a dozen initial forecasts that have been published.
Arthur is only the beginning of what is expected to be a long season.
CNN meteorologists Allison Chinchar and Taylor Ward contributed to this report.
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