In other words, state-level polls show that Biden has a national advantage of around 8 points.
In addition, all methods agree that Biden has considerable national advantage.
Researching state polls has the advantage of having more data points to play, so I feel safe enough that they give us a decent snapshot. We are looking at more than 20 polls and more than 15,000 interviews. Small aggregate error margins.
In addition, we can see the conditions that we expect to be at least competitive (ie, those whose margins are within the last 10 points) and which we don’t think will close in 2020.
In competitive countries (where most state voting has taken place), there has been an average swing of 6 points against Biden compared to the Clinton 2016 results. The same is true in non-competitive countries.
At least from this state-level data, it seems that no candidate runs a disproportionate score in fields that are already friendly to him.
We can also test our data, to see what would happen if the polls underestimated Trump like they did in 2016.
What I found is that Biden will stay ahead, even with a 2016 accident.
Concentrate only on competitive countries, Trump’s undersold poll with 2 points (RealClearPolitics) or 3 points (FiveThirtyEight). If polls in competing countries die as much as at the end of 2016, Biden will still excel in countries such as Florida, Michigan and Pennsylvania.
The point is that Biden is ahead now nationally and in competitive countries. The good news for Trump is that he has about six months to change the direction of the campaign, which is more than enough time to do it.
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