State polls show Biden has a clear national advantage | Instant News


What is the point: One of the big questions when we look at national polls is whether they are an accurate representation of what is happening at the state level. One of the easiest ways to check is with compare the results of state polls for past presidential elections in certain states. I did it for all telephone polls that have been calling cell phones since early April.
When we were average out this state poll, they suggested that Biden ran about 6 points ahead of Hillary Clinton’s final margin.

In other words, state-level polls show that Biden has a national advantage of around 8 points.

That is actually slightly larger than the 6.6 points that Biden has in the average high-quality national poll taken in the same period. I should note that if we weigh the average state poll for each state population, we get a margin of 6.6 points in the north. (Population-based weights make us somewhat more vulnerable to outlier polls, because we have fewer polls from the most populous states.)

In addition, all methods agree that Biden has considerable national advantage.

Researching state polls has the advantage of having more data points to play, so I feel safe enough that they give us a decent snapshot. We are looking at more than 20 polls and more than 15,000 interviews. Small aggregate error margins.

In addition, we can see the conditions that we expect to be at least competitive (ie, those whose margins are within the last 10 points) and which we don’t think will close in 2020.

In competitive countries (where most state voting has taken place), there has been an average swing of 6 points against Biden compared to the Clinton 2016 results. The same is true in non-competitive countries.

At least from this state-level data, it seems that no candidate runs a disproportionate score in fields that are already friendly to him.

Biden has posted leads of more than 5 points in places like Michigan and Pennsylvania. He excelled in more than enough states to win 270 electoral votes, if elections were held today.

We can also test our data, to see what would happen if the polls underestimated Trump like they did in 2016.

What I found is that Biden will stay ahead, even with a 2016 accident.

Poll downplaying Trump by 1 point (RealClearPolitics) or 2 points (FiveThirtyEight) in the aggregate of the states for which we are currently polling. Applying that 2016 bias to our current data, Biden will have 6-7 points leading nationally.

Concentrate only on competitive countries, Trump’s undersold poll with 2 points (RealClearPolitics) or 3 points (FiveThirtyEight). If polls in competing countries die as much as at the end of 2016, Biden will still excel in countries such as Florida, Michigan and Pennsylvania.

Of course, it might not be wise to expect a 2016-size voting era in 2020. Polls in these countries which have large contests throughout the state in 2018 are pretty much impartial. It doesn’t matter what set of countries (all or only competitive) and which aggregate, the poll was no more favorable for the Republicans than the final result.
In states like Wisconsin, America Marquette 2018 final poll nail down the margins of the last Senate and underestimate Democratic candidates for governor’s margin by 1 point.

The point is that Biden is ahead now nationally and in competitive countries. The good news for Trump is that he has about six months to change the direction of the campaign, which is more than enough time to do it.

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