At current speed, in about two weeks, the number of Americans dying from COVID-19 will unfortunately be greater than the state’s largest stadium seating capacity: “The Big House” in Ann Arbor, Michigan, which holds around 108,000 soccer fans the ball.
Even in normal times, political forecasts are at risk more than five months before the presidential election. And with a free fall economy and the country facing the biggest public health emergency in a century, no one can confidently predict a national atmosphere in November.
A vulnerable base
But if there is one factor that should make Trump panic, it is the erosion of his support among older voters. In 2016, according to a national exit poll, Trump ran ahead of Hillary Clinton in every age group above 40.
The margins are approaching the vanishing point in many recent trials heats up against Joe Biden. For example, the national CBS News Poll, released in early May, made Biden run almost the same as Trump among all voters over 45 years. The latest Economist / YouGov survey shows Biden in front of Trump, 50 percent to 42 percent, among voters at 45 Ages -64, although the president does lead among voters who qualify for Medicare.
State polls show the same pattern. Trump brought Florida voters over the age of 50 with a double-digit difference in 2016, according to poll results. But the Quinnipiac Poll in mid-April in the state found Biden leading it by 10 points among voters above 65. In Michigan, another state where Trump won narrowly in 2016, the Fox News poll in mid-April led Biden to lead the president with 50 points. margins of up to 41 percent among voters over 45 years.
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