When the Hurricane Season 2020 officially starts on Monday, the National Hurricane Center () is watching an area in the southern Campeche Bay in the Gulf of Mexico for possible tropical development. On Saturday night, the area only had 20% of development over the next 5 days.
Some of the factors we will be watching this week along with the NHC are warm Gulf waters when waves or irregular low waves enter when they come out of open waters. A good rule of thumb is that the longer it can stay above open water, the greater the chance it will strengthen and eventually close into some form of tropical system. One long-term model that supports several levels of development is the European model. A series of walking models (the same model is run several times with several conditions changing each time) shows some areas from Northern Mexico to the Mississippi coast can see heavy rain on weekends.
However, the American model is only pushing a little deep tropical humidity into the region this weekend but is trying to delay tropical development until early next week. Either way, tropical moisture snails are likely to increase the chance of rain this weekend in some areas.
So what does this mean for you? Currently, not that much. We already discussed it! There are lots of questions to be answered this week and 20% of development opportunities means 80% are not developing. So we will see new model information when you sign in and process it with you. However, this serves as a good reminder to complete your hurricane plan if you have not already established it with your family or business.
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