The National Hurricane Center issued a special tropical weather outlook on Saturday night warning of the possibility of 20% of tropical depression forming in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico in the next five days.
Hurricane Specialist David Zelinsky gave the system a zero percent chance to form depression over the next two days.
“A large area of disturbed weather is expected to stretch across southern Mexico and the southwest Gulf of Mexico for the next few days,” Zelinsky said in a message of his views. “An area with low pressure can be formed in this region by the middle of next week, and some gradual development might occur afterwards if the system remains on water.”
The initial set of storm trail models for potential systems largely moved them across the southernmost peninsula of Mexico to the southernmost Gulf and then circled back across the peninsula to the Pacific Ocean. One track did show the storm had finally reached the western coastline of Louisiana in about two weeks.
In a Saturday night message to Louisiana and Mississippi emergency officials, Bob Wagner, a meteorologist at the Slidell office of the National Weather Service, said that his office was monitoring the storm and would send appropriate updates, including on Sunday afternoons or evenings.
“It is important not to focus on certain models that are implemented when assessing the long-term potential for tropical systems (especially those that have not yet been developed),” Wagner warned, “because there is likely to be a large difference between initial models before storms occur, form into tropical systems, and confidence in any of these early scenarios will be very low.
But he also pointed out that with the onset of the typhoon on Monday, all regions around the Gulf must monitor the possibility of developing a tropical system.
The National Hurricane Center will begin issuing a six-hour update on the status of the storm system in the Atlantic Ocean, the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico at 1am, 1pm, 7pm and 7pm. starting Monday. On Sunday, he will issue special tropical weather forecasts at 8 am, or earlier, if necessary.
In addition to a hurricane that moves to the Gulf, the center follows the development of a low-pressure area about 350 miles east of Bermuda on Saturday. This gives the system a 20% chance of forming a depression or storm for 48 hours and the same opportunity for up to five days. Zelinsky said environmental conditions were expected to be less favorable for the development of the system on Sunday as it moves generally north.
🌀 JUST IN: NHC finally highlights the area we will watch next week and next weekend. It will likely be a slow process so there is plenty of time to watch it. It’s still too soon to tell where it went. If a system develops, it is likely to become a big rain maker. # BeOn4 pic.twitter.com/I4QBgjVGiu
– Payton Malone WWL-TV (@paytonmalonewx) May 31, 2020
There are already two tropical storms named this season – Arthur and Bertha.
The next named storm is Cristobal.
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